INDIANAPOLIS—Former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley won a sizable share of the vote in the Indiana primary electing, continuing a trend seen in other states and signaling that former President Donald Trump faces a bloc of “never Trump” voters within his own party.
Ms. Haley, who suspended her presidential campaign two months ago, received 21.7 percent of the vote, or about 128,000, on May 7.
President Trump garnered 78.3 percent, about 460,000.
Since suspending her campaign on March 6, Ms. Haley has received between 10 and 17 percent of the vote in 12 of the 19 primary elections where her name appeared on the ballot.
Those results are insignificant in terms of the Republican nomination, as President Trump gained more than the minimum number of convention delegates to secure the nomination on March 12.
Yet experts say the possible impact of this ongoing Haley vote on the general election is uncertain.
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While some opposition to President Trump appears to exist within Republican ranks, there could be a number of factors influencing the vote for Haley.
Open Primary
Indiana holds open primaries, meaning that any registered voter can participate in either the Democratic or the Republican primary, but not both.“As we saw in earlier open contests, Dems were more than happy—and at times encouraged through liberal funded campaigns—to vote for Haley,” a Trump campaign official told The Epoch Times.
“We clinched the primary weeks ago and have spent no money or resources on a primary campaign.”
Beyond that, the differences between primary and general elections and the unusual dynamics of the 2024 race make it difficult to predict how those voters will behave in November.
Indiana voter turnout in the previous presidential election was 65 percent for the general election but just 24 percent for the primary election.
This year about 775,000 of some 4.8 million registered voters took part in the state’s presidential primary, a turnout rate of approximately 16.3 percent.
Primary election voters tend to be highly committed and have strong feelings about the election.
Also, Indiana’s open primary system allows both Democratic and independent voters to take part in the Republican contest.
Mai Cooper of Indianapolis told The Epoch Times her motivation for voting on May 7 was to “preserve democracy.”
Ms. Cooper, a Democrat, said: “Republicans will be supporting people who will destroy democracy.”
A lifelong Republican voter from Fishers, who asked not to be identified, said she found it “extremely distressing” that the party had chosen to renominate President Trump.
“I find myself in a perpetual minority,” she said.
According to Marjorie Hershey, a professor of political science at Indiana University, this combination of low turnout, high motivation, and the possibility of crossover voting makes it difficult to speculate on general election outcomes based on primary results.
Persistent Opposition
Even so, it appears that President Trump does face resistance within his own party.“I think it’s been clear ... that there is a group of voters—probably Republicans, but we can’t be sure—who don’t support Trump and who feel strongly enough to be among the 10–20 percent of people who vote in a primary,” Ms. Hershey told The Epoch Times by email.
Marty Wood, a Republican precinct committeeman from Fishers, has encountered that resistance when going door to door to mobilize voters.
He frequently encounters Republican voters frustrated by the former president’s personality and leadership style.
Yet Mr. Wood believes many of the resisters can be persuaded to support President Trump in the fall, especially given the alternative of a second Biden term.
“I tell them, ‘You vote for one or the other,’” Mr. Wood said. “That’s the system.”
The Indiana GOP seems unconcerned about the determined minority of Republican voters who are not supporting the candidate, or at least not yet.
“Yesterday once again proved that Indiana is Trump country,” Griffin Reid, press secretary for the state party, told The Epoch Times.
“Hoosier Republicans are fired up for this presidential election and we are looking forward to making sure Indiana is once again one of the first states called for President Trump on election night.”
Both Parties Beset
When suspending her campaign, Ms. Haley pointedly did not endorse her competitor.“It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him, and I hope he does that,” she told supporters on March 6.
“At its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away,” Ms. Haley added.
Given that Ms. Haley continues to draw votes, it’s unclear that President Trump has won the support of reluctant Republicans and Independents.
Yet President Biden faces a voter revolt of his own.
Although he has clinched his party’s nomination, President Biden has gained less than 90 percent of the primary vote in 31 of 40 primary contests.
Ninety percent is often considered a benchmark for incumbent presidents in primary elections.
Protesters against the war in Gaza have been among the most vocal Biden rebels.
“I can’t vote for Trump for many reasons but I also can’t vote for someone like Biden who is actively committing genocide in Gaza,” Jesse Pape of New York City told The Epoch Times.
“I’m going to vote for a third party … Dr. Cornell West or the Socialist Party candidate.”
“I don’t think it’s the people abandoning Biden as much as it is Biden abandoning the people,” Brooklyn resident Travis Essof told The Epoch Times.
Mr. Essof said he plans to write in the name of Shirley Chisholm, the first black woman to serve as a member of Congress, who died in 2005.
Election Unknowns
For both major parties, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could prove to be a wild card.Mr. Kennedy, who has struggled to gain ballot access, was nominated by the Natural Law Party in Michigan on April 18, granting him a place on that state’s presidential ballot.
President Biden won Michigan by just 2.8 percent in 2020, so Mr. Kennedy’s presence could be a deciding factor in the race, even if he does not win.
Voter participation is also a variable.
In the last presidential cycle, 94.1 percent of registered voters participated, making U.S. voter turnout among the highest in the world according to the Pew Research Center.
Even then, the percentage of age-eligible voters who took part was just 62.8 percent, running 31st among 49 countries holding national elections near that time.
“There’s simply no way to predict with any accuracy how those anti-Trumpers will vote in November, but the key question is how many of them will vote at all,” Ms. Hershey said.
—Juliette Fairley contributed to this article—
