As American military aid arrives to support Lebanese troops fighting Fatah al-Islam, a radical Palestinian splinter group, in northern Lebanon, Middle East observers say that the stability of the country is fragile and much depends on the Lebanese army remaining united.
Intense fighting in the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp, home to more than 30,000 Palestinian refugees, resulted in 79 deaths last week, making it Lebanon's worst internal violence since the 1975–90 civil war.
Professor Michael Humphrey, a specialist in Middle Eastern affairs at Sydney University, said Lebanon was vulnerable to many points of confrontation and the government and army would be stretched to cope.
"[The recent fighting] is highlighting the volatility of those kinds of confrontations, which could certainly escalate," Humphrey told The Epoch Times. "Everyone is worried about them escalating.
Humphrey said there were fundamental points of tension within the Lebanese community which would test the state's ability to govern.
One of them is foundational and has to do with the balance between Christian and Muslim representation as set up by the French at the end of World War I, said Humphrey, who noted that "There was quite a deliberate strategy [by the French] to create Lebanon as a Christian state."
Part of the whole dilemma of Lebanese national identity historically and, in a sense, still today, is whether Lebanon looks to the west or looks to the east," he said.
It is estimated that Muslims make up around 65 percent of Lebanon's current population, but there is also a large Christian population, predominantly Catholic, Maronite, and Orthodox, plus a sizeable Druze minority.
Around 400,000 Palestinians—roughly 10 percent of the population—living in twelve refugee camps of poor condition in Lebanon, add an additional source of internal tension. They have no rights to own a business, property, or even citizenship, said Humphrey.
A third source of tension, in Humphrey's analysis, is the historical relationship between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslim communities that have emerged from a marginal group to "a significant political power." He cited the rise of Hezbollah, an armed Shi'ite Muslim movement that gained seats in the Lebanese Parliament last year.
But as long as Hezbollah remains part of Lebanon, they are faced with the country's challenging diversity, Humphrey noted.
"Even if we were to talk about the role of Hezbollah and their connection to Iran or Syria, the truth is that in Lebanon, the Shi'ites are one community amongst seventeen," said Humphrey.
This is one of the characteristics of Lebanese politics, he said, and at the end of the day Hezbollah, like any other contender, had to learn to deal with others.
Another source of tension is the upcoming presidential election in September, which Humphrey said would be "a contest over whether a pro-Syrian or not pro-Syrian president is elected."
From Humphrey's point of view, while it will be the Lebanese government's job to maintain control during intense juggling of interests, the Lebanese army may be the one that determines the outcome.
"The issue will be, if there is a real confrontation across communities or across new political divides, whether the army would hold together.
"That is really the crux of the issue now," he said.