The 150th Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday from Churchill Downs. The horse given the best chance to win, Fierceness, seemingly has everything in his favor except the one thing he can’t control.
If you don’t know what sesquicentennial means, then simply tune into the Kentucky Derby this Saturday, and you'll be inundated with the word. The Kentucky Derby will hold its 150th running this weekend at the legendary Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, making this the sesquicentennial anniversary of the very first race. The Derby has become a part of American culture and is synonymous with Louisville, growing in popularity exponentially since its first running in 1875.
It is held on the first Saturday in May every year and marks the beginning of the Triple Crown season in American horseracing, followed by the Preakness, coming two weeks after the Derby, and finally, the Belmont Stakes, which is three weeks following the Preakness. It is annually both the most-attended and most-watched horse racing event in North America, with last year’s Derby watched by 14.44 million viewers. In comparison, that made the 2023 Kentucky Derby the second-most watched non-football sporting event in the country, trailing only the NCAA Tournament Men’s Basketball Championship Game between UConn and San Diego State (14.69 million viewers).
Thus, lots of eyeballs will be on the 2024 Kentucky Derby when the field goes to post at 6:57 p.m. ET. There’s a favorite for the Derby every year, but just like any other sporting event—whether it’s a baseball game, a soccer match, or a golf tournament—the favorite doesn’t always prevail. This year’s favorite is a 3-year-old thoroughbred named Fierceness, whose personality isn’t exactly congruent with his name. The horse’s owner, Mike Repole, even likened him to a Hall of Fame NBA player who was known for his stoic and calm demeanor.
Mr. Repole wasn’t done with cross-sports comparisons and had another timely quote about the horse during the midst of the 2024 NFL Draft, saying: “He’s just a well-built, balanced colt, beautiful looking. But he’s not a horse if you lined them up and said, ‘Who are you going to draft in the first round?’ He’s not one of those. But you can’t measure heart and ability and talent. That’s what you get out of him.”
All of that heart, ability, and talent will look to defy recent history, which hasn’t been very kind to the Kentucky Derby favorite. Through the first 105 editions of the race, the favorite won 43.8 percent of the time, which is quite high when you consider this isn’t a one-on-one event like tennis or boxing, where there’s a 50–50 chance of prevailing. The Kentucky Derby field goes 20 deep, so statistically, the favorite only has a 5 percent chance of winning.
While the favorite had lots of early success at The Run for the Roses, that hasn’t been the case since 1980. Over the last 44 editions of the race, the favorite has won just 10 times, or 22.7 percent. The favored horse hasn’t won in each of the last five years as you have to go back to Justify in 2018—who would go on to win the Triple Crown that year—to find the last Kentucky Derby favorite to be victorious at Churchill Downs.
It’s hard to pinpoint exactly why the win rate for the favorite has nearly been cut in half since 1980 compared to beforehand, but Mr. Repole is hoping this drought ends on Saturday. He has sent seven previous horses to the Derby and lost all seven times, so no one wants a victory more than him. Fierceness checks most of the boxes one looks for in a contender, such as pedigree and proven connections, which in non-horse racing lingo means he has great genes and a winning team behind him.
The former comes from Fierceness being a descendant of both Secretariat, who is considered the greatest racehorse of all-time and was the 1973 Triple Crown winner, as well as Seattle Slew, who also won the Triple Crown in 1977. Meanwhile, having great connections means the horse has both a trainer and jockey who have proven themselves on this stage. Fierceness’ trainer, Todd Pletcher, has already been inducted into the U.S. Racing Hall of Fame and has won two prior Kentucky Derbies. Meanwhile, jockey John Velazquez is also a Hall of Famer who has three Derby wins under his belt and has accumulated more career earnings than any other jockey in the history of the sport.
Fierceness will also step foot onto Churchill Downs off an utterly dominant last race on March 30. He won the Florida Derby—which is considered the premier prep race for the Kentucky Derby—by a record 13.5 lengths, which is what helped make him the favorite for Saturday’s race.
So, there are two opposing forces at play for the 2024 Kentucky Derby. On one hand, you have this transcendent horse coming off one of the biggest blowout victories in the history of the sport and has a Dream Team of connections behind him. On the other hand, you have a history that hasn’t been too kind to horses like Fierceness who’ve previously been in this position. These competing factors are what makes sports so compelling and what will have tens of millions of people tuning in on Saturday to see if Fierceness can get the job done.
