BUENOS AIRES—Argentine farmers' third strike in less than three months doesn't augur well for Argentina's President Cristina Kirchner. This unresolved conflict raises the possibility of serious food shortages during spring (September to December) in some of Argentina's main cities. If no solution is found soon, the situation may well spiral out of control and speed up the unraveling of Mrs. Kirchner's government.
The conflict with the farmers is just one more example of a government that is out of touch with the people. During two recent trips to Argentina—one last month and one in August of 2007—I was able to verify personally the sharp increase in the price of basic necessities.
According to government statistics, the inflation rate is 8.8 percent. Independent economists place the figure anywhere from 20 to 25 percent. The disparity between government figures and independent estimates may be due to the government's arbitrary change of cost-of-living indicators from the national statistics institute, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censo (INDEC), a respected institution until now.
Corruption is rampant, and political pressure is used to neutralize the media and render opposition ineffective. At a political rally in my home province of Tucumán, one of the poorest in the country, President Cristina Kirchner, inaugurating a rural hospital, addressed a cheering crowd that had been shuttled in, and generously paid, by her Peronist Party with government funds to provide local color and support. The president made her trademark speech on the need to redistribute the country's resources—her answer to the strike by the disgruntled farmers over sharply increased export taxes.
At a time when between 35 percent and 40 percent of the population lives under the poverty line, when major issues of health and education need to be addressed, the government has just signed a contract for building a fast "bullet" train to the tune of almost 4 billion dollars.
Luis Juez, a former mayor of Cordoba, one of the cities to be reached by the proposed bullet train recently stated, "What we really need is to recover those towns that became ghost towns after the railroad network was destroyed. Some cities don't even have potable water, and the government wants to bring us a bullet train. …"
Human rights have long been a blotch on Argentina's past, and the governments of both Kirchners (Cristina and her husband Néstor, the former president) have certainly attempted to bring to justice those responsible for the disappearance of thousands during the years of the military regime. Such commitment, however, has not translated into other areas of people's rights, such as right to enough food and health care.
Adolfo Pérez Esquivel, an Argentine Nobel peace laureate, told me in Buenos Aires, "This government doesn't have a coherent human rights policy."
Argentina is one of the principal beneficiaries of the world agricultural crisis. Its exports are up, as is tourism. It was hoped that both Kirchner governments would profit from these exceptional boom years to raise living standards. Instead, some economists estimate that during 2007, 1.3 million Argentines descended into poverty, a situation that has only worsened in 2008.
Tomás Raffo, an economist with the Argentine Workers Central (CTA) has told Inter Press Service, "Argentina has beaten an all-time record: It is the only country in the world where poverty has grown faster than the population."
What Argentina needs is a massive program of public works, rather than the paternalistic policies the government has promoted that hurt more than help poor Argentines. Special policies should be planned to address Argentina's serious youth problems. Adolescents' lives are impaired by widespread drug abuse and lack of job opportunities. They need training programs to adapt to new demands in the job market for which they are now badly prepared.
President Cristina Kirchner is facing increasing opposition to her policies, while the country descends into a profound crisis. Unless there is a drastic change of policy, her government runs the risk of being doomed.
César Chelala is a cowinner of an Overseas Press Club of America award for an article on the human rights situation in Argentina during the last military dictatorship.
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