BANGKOK—A tense weekend stand-off between riot police and anti-government protesters in Bangkok has rekindled fears of politicial instability in Thailand, possibly culminating in another military coup.
Many of the social forces and faces in the mix are the same as those behind the street protests that ended in the September 2006 coup by royalist elements of the military against telecommunications billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra.
However, the picture is much murkier than two years ago, with a staunchly pro-palace Prime Minister in charge of an avowedly pro-Thaksin cabinet after a December election won comfortably by Thaksin proxies despite a vigorous counter-campaign by the army.
Here are some possible scenarios, compiled by Reuters on the basis of interviews with analysts and Bangkok-based diplomats:
Protests Rumble on, but No Flashpoint
As with the 2005 anti-Thaksin rallies by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the demonstrations will rumble on for months, getting in the way of Bangkok traffic and government policy-making at a time of slowing growth and soaring inflation.
Inflammatory and contradictory statements and stances will emerge from all sides, ranging from the PAD to top generals, senior royal officials, the police, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and Thaksin himself.
A week of protests and minor scuffles between pro- and anti-government supporters in Bangkok has raised fears that the army may storm back into Thai politics after nearly three years of instability and a coup.
Here are some milestones since the protests that sparked the putsch in September 2006:
* April 2, 2006: Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra wins second term in national elections. His victory is undermined by an opposition boycott and weeks of mass street protests led by coalition group People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).
* Sept. 19: Military stages coup ten days after Thaksin heads overseas on tour. He goes into exile in London.
* Oct. 1: Former army commander-in-chief Surayud Chulanont sworn in as interim prime minister. Thaksin steps down as Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party leader two days later.
* Feb. 21, 2007: Somkid Jatusripitak, a former finance minister and architect of Thaksin's pro-business policies, quits as economic adviser to interim government after six days.
* Feb. 28: Finance Minister Pridiyathorn Devakula quits, blaming cabinet infighting. Succeeded by Chalongphob Sussangkarn.
* March 26: Prosecutors charge Thaksin's wife, Potjaman, her brother and secretary with tax evasion, in the first charges to emerge from an inquiry into alleged corruption under Thaksin.
* March 29: Surayud announces a general election in December.
* May 30: Constitutional Tribunal dissolves Thai Rak Thai for breaking election laws. Bans Thaksin and 110 other leading members of the party from politics for five years.
* Aug. 20: Voters endorse new military-drafted constitution, the 18th in 75 years of on-off democracy.
* Oct 1: Coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin steps down as army chief to become a deputy prime minister in charge of internal security.
* Dec 23: Pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP) falls just short of outright majority in a general election.
* Jan 8, 2008: Thaksin's wife, Potjaman, returns to Thailand after months of exile, to fight corruption charges.
* Jan 18: Supreme Court absolves PPP of election fraud. The next day PPP declares a coalition government with five small allies, agrees to let justice take course on Thaksin charges.
* Jan 22: Military council which ousted Thaksin disbands, and promises there will be no more coups.
* Jan 28: PPP leader Samak Sundaravej elected prime minister.
* Feb 6: New cabinet, packed with Thaksin allies, sworn in by King Bhumibol Adulyadej.
* Feb 28: Thaksin flies back to Bangkok after 18-months in exile, and is greeted by thousands of supporters.
* March 10: New charges filed against Thaksin over illegal use of lottery funds. He pleads not guilty two days later.
* March 24: Six-party ruling coalition bids to amend seven-month-old constitution to stop any disbanding of parties for breaking election laws. Anti-Thaksin groups criticise move.
* April 11: Election Commission rules members of two parties in ruling coalition are guilty of vote fraud; a verdict which could lead to disbanding of their parties. Public prosecutors have 30 days to decide whether to take cases to court.
* May 25: About 20 people are injured in minor clashes between pro and anti-government demonstrators in Bangkok. A week of peaceful protests follow, led by the PAD which demands the government drop its bid to amend the constitution.
* May 30: Cabinet minister Jakrapob Penkair resigns over accusations he insulted King Bhumibol Adulyadej, in a move aimed at defusing political tensions. PAD vows to continue protests.
* May 31: In a televised address to the nation, Prime Minister Samak tells protesters to disperse or "the police will clear you out." Samak later backs away from threat of force.
* June 2: Thai stock market falls two percent as investors worry about more political turbulence ahead.
However, the protests, most of which involve middle-aged, middle-class Bangkok residents, will not evolve into full-scale riots or street-fighting, the normal pretext for the army to move in and seize power.
Diplomats and analysts say the army does not have the same appetite for a coup that it did in 2006, given its failure to purge Thaksin and his brand of autocratic, pro-business rule from the political system.
In addition, it does not appear to have a ready replacement for Samak, a fire-brand royalist with a distinctly soft spot for all things military.
Protests Intensify Due to Economic Slowdown
The protests carry on for several months, but take on a different tone given the slowing economic growth expected in the second half of the year and the inflation being caused by soaring world oil prices.
Instead of being a slightly esoteric 'royalists versus republicans' clash, the anti-government movement starts to involve groups of urban workers such as taxi-drivers who are seriously struggling to make ends meet.
The focus of the attacks will shift to the government's handling of the economy, and present a possibly fatal challenge, as happened in the immediate aftermath of the 1997 baht devaluation that triggered Asia's wider financial crisis.
Coalition Falls Apart, New Elections
Even though its parliamentary majority is large, the pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP) relies on support from five other coalition partners, who are already ratcheting up the pressure, presumably to secure more influence in government.
If they all deserted PPP, Samak and the government would be exposed to a no-confidence motion in parliament, and could fall. New elections would then ensue.
This scenario is thought unlikely, as most politicians and parties do not have enough money to contest another election after three in the last three years.
Military Coup
Top generals are saying in public that the army will not march into politics again, although after 18 successful coups in the last 75 years, it is never advisable to take them at their word.
If the pro- and anti-Thaksin protests swell in numbers and turn violent, pressure would grow on the army to put troops on the streets to back up the police—the pretext for a coup that has been used many times in the past.
However, the army appears to be more reluctant to get involved, mainly due to its failure to get rid of Thaksin after 2006 and the interim post-coup government's shambolic handling of the economy.
The stakes are also higher than they were two years ago, with public, as well as international and investor reaction, likely to be far less forgiving at a time of far greater economic uncertainty.
However, the new, army-drafted constitution that came into effect in December 2007 gives the military huge powers to intervene under a domestic emergency security law.
Thai Stocks Hit as Protests Pile Pressure on Economy
BANGKOK—Anti-government protests on the streets of Bangkok have knocked Thai stocks sharply lower, as investors already fretting over slower exports and soaring inflation worry another coup may be on its way.
Jittery investors, worried about a repeat of the September 2006 putsch against Thaksin Shinawatra, sold Thai shares on Monday, sending the Bangkok bourse<.SETI> down 2 percent at the midday break, to add to the index's 4.8 percent fall last week, it's biggest weekly decline since August 2007.
"Foreign investors are queuing up to sell shares as the political turbulence drags on," a dealer at BT Securities said before Monday's opening.
After a tense weekend stand-off between riot police and protesters, Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee said the anti-government demonstrations were hurting the economy, although he did not expect violence.
"I have to admit that the problems over the past week have affected confidence," Surapong told reporters.
Foreign investors dumped a net $425 million of Thai shares over the first five months of 2008. The index is down 4.8 percent since Jan. 1, although it is one of the better performers in southeast Asia.
With the country still divided between pro- and anti-Thaksin camps, minor clashes on the streets of Bangkok on May 25 renewed fears of a repeat of the protracted political turmoil that preceded the 2006 coup.
Some investors also fear another foray by the military into politics.
The People Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which led months of rallies to oust Thaksin in 2005 and 2006, vowed on Sunday not to pull down its stage on a major avenue in Bangkok set up to demand the resignation of the "Thaksin puppet" six-party coalition.
Firebrand Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, who said during the 2007 election campaign he was a Thaksin proxy, announced on television on Saturday that he would order police to break up the protest as it was blocking traffic and royal motorcades.
He later backtracked amid PAD charges that the crackdown was not supported by other members of the coalition or the military.
The PAD, which drew only hundreds to its May 25 rally, originally demanded that parliament shelve a motion to amend the army-designed constitution. It argues that proposed changes are meant only to benefit Thaksin.
A pro-Thaksin minister resigned on Friday over an alleged royal slur, but the PAD now says it wants the entire government to step aside over its alleged failure to protect the throne from attacks by Thaksin supporters.
The Thaksin camp vehemently denies any disrespect to the crown.
Top military generals, who led the 2006 coup, said they were also worried about attempts to undermine the king, the world's longest reigning monarch with nearly 62 years on the throne, but said the situation so far did not warrant another coup.
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