DUBLIN—The Irish government urged voters on Wednesday to back the European Union's reform treaty in what it said would be a "very, very close" referendum.
Ireland, which votes on Thursday, is the only one of the 27 EU member states holding a referendum -- meaning a country accounting for less than 1 percent of the bloc's 490 million population could derail a pact designed to reform how it is run.
"It is very, very close," Ireland's EU minister Dick Roche said. "We do believe we will have a victory."
A survey last week put opponents of the Lisbon Treaty, which replaces a constitution rejected by French and Dutch voters in 2005, ahead for the first time.
Roche said his party's own canvassing pointed to a very strong move back towards the "Yes" camp in the last few days.
The last survey of the campaign, carried out by pollsters Red C and published at the weekend, showed opponents of the treaty gaining ground but put the "Yes" vote slightly ahead.
"I would say it is very close but edging towards a 'Yes' depending on who goes out to vote," Red C Managing Director Richard Colwell told Reuters on Wednesday.
Colwell said many voters who oppose the treaty on the grounds they do not understand it may be less likely to vote.
Bank worker Tony Connell, 42, said he would be voting "No" on the treaty as he had "no idea what it means".
Most politicians, businesses, the congress of trade unions and powerful farming groups have called for a "Yes" vote, but concede a complex treaty text has made it a hard sell to voters.
Margaret O'Sullivan, a civil servant, said the benefits of EU membership had persuaded her to vote "Yes", even though she did not fully understand the document.
"The weather is fine and I hope the turnout is good because I think if it's good hopefully it will go 'Yes'," she said.
Paralysis?
Turnout is key after Irish voters almost scuppered EU plans for eastwards expansion by rejecting the Nice treaty in a 2001 referendum where only 35 percent of the electorate voted. It was only passed in a second vote widely criticised as undemocratic.
Prime Minister Brian Cowen said EU reform was in Ireland's "vital national interest" and called on people to vote.
"After 35 years of respecting and helping Ireland, the EU has earned the right not to be seen as a threat to us," he said.
Ireland's politicians say the EU has no fallback position given the treaty is already a replacement for the defunct constitution and that there can be no rerun this time round.
Jean-Luc Melenchon, a leading left-wing French campaigner against the constitution, urged the Irish to vote "No".
"If we paralyse the machine, we will force the elites to ask why the people don't want their wonderful liberal European integration," he told RTL radio, echoing Ireland's "No" camp who believe a better deal can be negotiated.
Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel, whose country holds the EU's rotating presidency, said the union would continue to function if Ireland voted "No".
Ireland's "Yes" camp says the Irish economy, reeling from a property downturn, would suffer if the treaty was rejected by a country whose Celtic Tiger boom was underpinned by EU support.
Alan McQuaid, Chief Economist at stockbroker Bloxham, said Irish government bonds would likely be hit most by a rejection but saw no serious long-term negative impact on shares.
"A rejection of the treaty is unlikely to blot the economic landscape in Ireland or Europe but the optics are important to external audiences, especially as Ireland has marketed itself to overseas investors as very much being part of Europe," he said.
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