JERUSALEM—Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's main coalition partner demanded on Wednesday that he leave office over corruption allegations, in political turmoil that threatens to disrupt peace talks with the Palestinians.
Defence Minister Ehud Barak issued the call—and raised the prospect of an early election—a day after an American businessman told an Israeli court how he had handed Olmert envelopes stuffed with thousands of dollars in cash.
"I do not think the prime minister can simultaneously run the government and deal with his own personal affair," said Barak, a former prime minister whose Labour party is Olmert's biggest partner in a fragile coalition government.
"Therefore, out of a sense of what is good for the country and in accordance with the proper norms, I think the prime minister must detach himself from the day-to-day running of the government," Barak told a news conference.
Olmert's office declined immediate comment. He has ridden out similar storms since taking office in early 2006 and Barak was less than clear on what steps he might take, and when.
Israeli PM Olmert
Defence Minister Ehud Barak called on Wednesday on Ehud Olmert to step aside as Israel's prime minister or face the collapse of his coalition and an early election after damaging testimony in a corruption case.
Following are some possible scenarios for what might happen next:
* Olmert has survived previous calls for his resignation, including from Barak, leader of his main coalition partner Labour. Although Barak's latest call is much more direct and unconditional than previous criticisms, Olmert could still try to weather this storm by staying in his job and arguing he will only resign if he is indicted in the corruption case. He could, however, be forced from office after a parliamentary election.
* Olmert could bow to pressure and take a leave of absence, temporarily handing power to his deputy, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, for up to 100 days. Analysts say he may be reluctant to hand over to someone he sees as a major rival within his centrist Kadima party and the cabinet. However, Olmert and Livni are the two Israeli leaders most involved in U.S.-sponsored peace negotiations with the Palestinians and so a Livni government is seen by many analysts as offering the most continuity for the process if Olmert were to go.
* Olmert's centrist Kadima party has no mechanism by which to unseat him as leader. But if Barak pulls out of the coalition government it could trigger a parliamentary no confidence vote that would bring down the government and give President Shimon Peres a chance to appoint a new prime minister. If, however, he felt no one could form a stable coalition, he could choose to ask parliament to dissolve itself and hold an election.
* If Olmert did resign outright, Peres could also simply name a replacement after consultation with leaders of parliamentary parties. The likely frontrunner would again be Livni, although unlike in the case of Olmert stepping aside temporarily in favour of his deputy, her appointment would be less certain. Barak is not a member of parliament and cannot therefore be prime minister without first winning a seat.
* If the present coalition breaks up, Peres could turn to a leader willing to forge a different line-up of alliances among the 12 groups in parliament. Of 120 seats, Kadima has 29, Labour 19 and the right-wing opposition Likud 12. However, if no leader could secure a parliamentary majority an election would follow. The next scheduled election is not until 2010.
* An election must be held within five months of the Knesset voting to dissolve itself. In practice, that gap is shorter. Polls show Likud would emerge strongest if a vote were held now.
* Any of the above outcomes could disrupt U.S.-backed peace talks with the Palestinians, which Olmert and President Mahmoud Abbas started in November, as well as recently-announced indirect negotiations with Syria.
Barak stopped short of action that would immediately bring down the government and trigger an election that polls suggest the right-wing Likud under Benjamin Netanyahu would win. Commentators noted that Barak failed to make good on similar calls last year for Olmert to go after the 2006 Lebanon war.
Barak spelled out Olmert's options as "suspension, vacation or resignation or declaring himself incapacitated". He added: "We will not be the ones to determine this."
Barak put the onus on Olmert's centrist Kadima party to seek a new leader to replace him. Olmert has denied any wrongdoing in the corruption case—saying the money was legitimate campaign funding—but has pledged to resign if indicted.
"If Kadima does not act and a government is not formed during this current session of parliament that is to our liking, we will act towards setting an agreed and early date for elections," Barak said.
"The Labour Party is not going to stand in front of Kadima with a stopwatch, but things have to happen soon," he said.
A parliamentary election is not due until 2010. A defection by Labour would almost certainly force an early ballot.
Options
Netanyahu is deeply sceptical of the peace talks with the Palestinians, which Washington hopes can achieve a deal before President George W. Bush leaves office in January, as well as on recently disclosed indirect negotiations with Syria.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas believes the crisis in Israel will hurt peace talks, his spokesman said.
"No doubt, what's happening will leave a negative impact on negotiations," Nabil Abu Rdainah said in a statement shortly after Barak called on Olmert to step aside.
Should Olmert, 62, step aside temporarily while prosecutors pursue the corruption case against him, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, as his deputy in Kadima and the cabinet, would almost certainly take over, for an interim period of 100 days.
Livni is the main negotiator with the Palestinians.
U.S. businessman Morris Talansky testified on Tuesday that he gave Olmert $150,000 in cash-stuffed envelopes, including personal loans that were never repaid, over a 15-year period before the veteran politician became Israel's leader.
Even in a country where many assume corruption at the top is rampant, the image painted in court of a politician with a penchant for expensive cigars and for cash over cheques offered by the American Jewish fundraiser was extraordinary.
"Barak's statement adds to the avalanche that has reduced the chances of Olmert remaining as prime minister, even though the legal procedure has not taken its course," said Yossi Shein, a political scientist at Tel Aviv University.
Olmert, whose defence attorneys will cross-examine Talansky in July, has acknowledged receiving money from the New York-based businessman but said the funds were legal election campaign contributions.
Raphael Israeli of Jerusalem's Hebrew University said: "In view of the choices given to Olmert by Barak, Olmert will have to go in the end ... But ... Olmert is so glued to his position that I don't think we can expect him to resign."
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