"The Australian republic seemed to get the thumbs up," said Prime Minister Kevin Rudd after a standing ovation for the suggestion at the 2020 Summit. Research too shows that nearly two-thirds of Australians want a republic, but heady enthusiasm aside, there are still many bridges to cross, not the least of which is Queen Elizabeth's personal standing in the community.
Professor Clive Bean, head of the School of Humanities at Queensland's University of Technology, says the Queen's long reign and the respect she has within the Australian community "colour the issue" and potential republicans may feel disloyal to her.
"It's [the republic] got a fair way to go yet before it becomes a reality," he told The Epoch Times.
"[We] need to find out what the process will be and also what the timing of it will be because even some republicans are saying it may be better to hold back a little bit till the reign of the current Queen comes to an end."
Under plans outlined at the Kevin Rudd -initiated Summit, a plebiscite, or non-binding vote, on becoming a republic was proposed for the 2010 Federal election. A resulting "yes" vote would then initiate a referendum for 2013 that would decide on the model.
Malcolm Turnbull, Shadow Treasurer and chairman of the Australian Republican Movement at the defeated 1999 referendum, however, is one of the republicans deferring to the Queen.
It's very important that the next referendum be held at a time when it is going to be won," he told the ABC. "There's no point in going down in glorious defeat twice...my view, as a committed republican, is that the best time for the next referendum is at the end of the Queen's reign."
Australian Governor-General Michael Jeffery shares a similar view.
"If there was to be any change, I don't think it would logically happen before Her Majesty the Queen is succeeded," he told the Australian Associated Press (AAP). "But I'm not commenting on whether it will change or not."
Major General Jeffery is to be replaced in September this year by Australia's first female viceroy, Quentin Bryce, who is considered to be a strong supporter of an Australian republic.
Mr Rudd, a self-confessed "lifelong republican", said the fact that Australia will become a republic "is inevitable", but like Mr Turnbull remembers too well the last referendum.
"Remember, the republic referendum bit the dust less than a decade ago, partly because the republican side itself of the argument was split down the middle – direct elects as opposed to the Parliament appointing an Australian head of State.
"The question I think to arise is the process by which we get there. What stages should be gone through to get there. Because the truth is we're unlikely to achieve a positive outcome on this unless there is widespread national consensus."
According to an Australian Election Survey Study taken after the 2007 Federal elections, 60 per cent of the population thinks Australia should become a republic.
However, Professor Bean said similar percentages were seen in the 1990s. He believes that splitting the issue into two separate votes this time is the right way to go.
"From that point of view, public opinion is reasonably steady on the broad notion of a republic," he said. "It is not overwhelmingly – 60/40 for it – but it is supporting.
That's a pretty consistent set of responses over time and that is different to the response you will get if you say: 'Do you want to have a republic with the Head of State elected by the Parliament?' or 'Do you want a republic with the Head of State elected by the people?' – that does generate different answers."
While Mr Rudd has shown that leadership is vital on these types of issues by lifting the approval rating for an official apology to Indigenous Australians from around 30 per cent before the actual event to around 60 per cent immediately after, Professor Bean said it will be leadership from the Opposition that will be crucial for the success of the referendum.
"When the process does get under way, one of the most significant factors will be the leadership shown by the Opposition because when we go to a referendum on the matter, which we will have to do at some stage, referendums are easy to defeat if both sides of Parliament aren't in favour of them.
"With John Howard's departure, the balance of opinion within the hierarchy of the Liberal Party I think will probably be much more in favour of a republic so it may well be that they will get in behind it, but that may well depend on the details for the model and how the process is presented."
Leader of the Opposition Brendan Nelson has indicated he will bow to popular consensus, but that he is personally happy keeping things as they are, AAP reported.
"I think the constitutional arrangements that we have in Australia have brought us an unprecedented measure of political and economic stability," he said.
"I very much support the current arrangements, but Australia is a democracy and there are many Australians, many members of the Liberal Party, who would like to see Australia as a republic."
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