ROME—Billionaire Silvio Berlusconi is hoping for a decisive victory over centre-left rival Walter Veltroni in Italy's parliamentary election to boost the next government's chances of tackling a social and economic malaise.
Berlusconi has consistently led opinion polls by about 5-9 percentage points but up to a third of the 47 million eligible voters are expected to make their choice at the last minute before they vote on Sunday and Monday.
"To govern properly I need a huge majority, so that I can take difficult, unpopular decisions if needed," the centre-right leader, who is seeking a third term as prime minister, told La Stampa newspaper in an interview on Thursday.
The next prime minister faces a big challenge as the third biggest economy in the European Union continues to trail euro zone economic growth and is seen by the International Monetary Fund expanding by just 0.3 percent this year.
U.S. Ambassador Ronald Spogli told a seminar in New York this week Italy attracts less U.S. investment than any European country except for Portugal.
"If Italy, already the tail-end in per capita income and productivity, doesn't do more to boost growth, it risks falling decline and losing influence in the world," he said.
Portuguese Nobel laureate and writer Jose Saramago says Italy has other woes, telling one newspaper it is "a sick democracy where corruption, mafia and crime prosper".
This has not cramped the style of media magnate Berlusconi, who was prime minister from 1994 to 1995, and from 2001 until 2006. He has said during campaigning that the left has "no taste in women" and promised a home-grown rescue bid for Italian airline Alitalia which is yet to emerge.
He is confident of a working majority in the lower house of parliament but has voiced fears of such a close contest in the Senate that he could be as weak as Romano Prodi, who quit as prime minister when his coalition collapsed in January.
"I need a margin of at least two dozen senators," said the 71-year-old leader of the People of Freedom (PDL) party, who might be lucky to secure a Senate majority half that size, polls show.
This weekend's parliamentary election in Italy pits centre-left leader and former Rome mayor Walter Veltroni against one of Italy's richest men, the conservative Silvio Berlusconi.
Here are some key facts about Veltroni.
* Veltroni, born in Rome in July 1955, is a former editor of left-wing daily L'Unita and started his political career in the now defunct Italian Communist Party. In contrast to Berlusconi's flamboyant style, he projects a more intellectual image.
* Often accused of 'buonismo'—Italian for being too much of a Mr Nice Guy—the twice-elected Rome mayor has sought to harden his image by cracking down on illegal settlements of Romanian immigrants in the city at a time when fear of crime, and foreigners, has become a major issue for many Italians.
* He was deputy prime minister in Romano Prodi's first cabinet in 1996 and held the arts and sports portfolio. As mayor, he has been away from national politics for a decade and, unlike Berlusconi who is contesting his fifth election, has never run for the top job.
* Last October, Veltroni was elected to lead the Democratic Party, which was formed via a merger between ex-communists and centrists.
* The part-time novelist and movie buff also created the Rome film festival. He resigned as mayor of Rome in February to lead the centre left in the election.
'America's Gift'
The man Berlusconi has named as economy minister if he wins, Giulio Tremonti, who held the job in his last government, does not underestimate the depth of the downturn.
"This is a crisis with a capital 'C'. I don't know if it will be like 1929, but we'll see," said Tremonti.
The 52-year-old centre-left hopeful Veltroni, former mayor of Rome, portrays himself as a breath of fresh air in Italian politics and compares himself to U.S. Democrat Barack Obama.
The reformed communist, a writer and film buff, promised to use 4 billion euros from fighting tax evasion to boost pay and pensions "to help families spend and relaunch internal demand to avoid the recession Bush's America is sending us as a gift".
Veltroni, whose Democratic Party is named after its American counterpart, enjoys the endorsement of actor George Clooney, who said on set in Rome he "speaks to young people, talks of hope and of a clean environment—a rare thing in Italian politics".
Veltroni accused Berlusconi, who ran Italy for seven months in 1994 and from 2001-6, of poisoning democracy by undermining the traditionally untouchable head of state this week.
Berlusconi was criticised for speculating that if leftist President Giorgio Napolitano resigned -- his term lasts until 2011—his government would "give" the presidency of a chamber of parliament to the left to maintain the balance of power.
Berlusconi was also criticised for calling a convicted Mafia mobster, who once worked for him as a stable boy and died in jail in 2000, a hero for refusing to betray his associates.
Veltroni called this an "ambiguous message" and promised to "annihilate the Mafia, Camorra and 'Ndrangheta"—the organised crime syndicates of Sicily, Calabria and Naples, respectively—if he becomes prime minister.
Italy's opposition leader Silvio Berlusconi said he was "100 percent" sure he would win a parliamentary election at the weekend.
The election was called after Romano Prodi's centre-left government imploded earlier this year.
Italian law bans opinion polls from two weeks before the April 13-14 vote, but the last ones published showed Berlusconi, known as Il Cavaliere, "The Knight", 5-9 percentage points ahead of his opponent, former Rome mayor Walter Veltroni.
Following are some key facts about Berlusconi:
* With a gleaming smile and year-round tan, Berlusconi, born in Milan in September 1936, entered politics in January 1994 promoting a "you can be rich like me" message.
* He was elected prime minister and took office in May but survived just eight months and languished for more than six years in opposition.
* Swept to power by a landslide victory in 2001, Berlusconi promised to revolutionise hidebound Italy. But change came slower than many hoped for and the economy barely grew during his five years in power.
* Berlusconi denied any failings, insisting that his government fulfilled its domestic reform programme.
* Berlusconi lost the April 2006 general election by the narrowest margin in Italian history, almost pulling off a dramatic comeback after opinion polls put him way behind until the last days of campaigning.
Berlusconi Business:
* Berlusconi made his fortune during a property boom in Milan in the 1960s. He then moved into television and his family now owns the country's leading private TV network. His interests also include top Italian soccer club AC Milan.
* Controversially he has kept control of his huge media empire, laying himself open to accusations of a conflict between his political and business interests and also vulnerable to numerous corruption investigations into him and his companies.
* Berlusconi went on trial again in late 2006 charged with fraud at broadcaster Mediaset, which his family controls.
* Combining the smooth talk of the business tycoon with a common touch, Berlusconi is one of Italy's richest men whose fortune Forbes put at $12 billion.
A Health Problem:
* It wasn't all smooth sailing, however, as in late 2006 he was admitted to hospital with a minor heart problem after fainting. He underwent successful heart surgery in a U.S. hospital in January 2007.
* In November 2007, Berlusconi broke up his Forza Italia (Go Italy!) party, as well as the "House of Freedoms" alliance with Catholics, northern separatists and post-Fascists. He has called his new group the "Party of Freedom" or "People of Freedom" party, which he hopes will bring him back to power.
Italy's Recent Governments
Italian voters decide on Sunday and Monday whether to entrust the flamboyant billionaire Silvio Berlusconi or his bookish centre-left rival Walter Veltroni with pulling the country out of an economic and social malaise.
Italy was plunged into crisis in January after Prime Minister Romano Prodi was forced to quit. Defections from his centre-left coalition had forced the collapse of the 61st government since World War Two.
Here is a chronology of governments since 1994:
Jan 18, 1994 —President Oscar Luigi Scalfaro dissolves parliament after two years of corruption scandals that destroyed the political old guard.
March 28 —Billionaire media magnate Silvio Berlusconi wins landslide victory with his Freedom Alliance coalition.
Dec 22 —Berlusconi's government falls after the Northern League party withdraws from the coalition.
Jan 13, 1995 —Scalfaro ignores Berlusconi's calls for a snap election and appoints former Treasury Minister Lamberto Dini as prime minister to head a government of technocrats.
Jan 11, 1996 —It becomes clear Dini no longer commands a majority. Scalfaro dissolves parliament.
April-May —Romano Prodi's centre-left coalition wins the election. He forms a government which lasts 28 months.
Oct 9, 1997 —Prodi's government loses a confidence vote after Communist allies withdraw support for the budget. Prodi resigns.
Oct 21 —Massimo D'Alema becomes Italy's first ex-communist to become prime minister at the head of a centre-left coalition.
Dec 18, 1999 —D'Alema resigns in a move largely seen as a bid to relaunch his coalition.
Dec 23 —D'Alema wins a confidence vote in parliament, giving him a mandate to form a new government.
April 19, 2000 —D'Alema resigns again after suffering a stinging defeat in regional elections.
April 26 —Giuliano Amato takes office at head of a new centre-left coalition.
May 13, 2001 —Berlusconi wins a parliamentary election and forms the 59th government.
April 20, 2005 —Berlusconi resigns after two coalition partners demanded a change of direction following a defeat for centre-right parties in regional elections.
April 23 —Italy's 60th government is sworn in, a new centre-right alliance under Berlusconi.
April 19, 2006 —The Supreme Court confirms centre-left leader Prodi won the April 9-10 national election, dismissing complaints by Berlusconi that the vote was marred by irregularities.
May 17 —Centre-left leader Prodi is sworn in.
Feb 21, 2007 —President Giorgio Napolitano accepts Prodi's resignation following the government's defeat in a Senate vote on foreign policy.
Feb 24 —President Napolitano asks Prodi to return to parliament to test his majority in a confidence vote in both houses. Four days later Prodi wins confidence vote in the upper house, or Senate, by 162 votes to 157.
March 2 —Prodi wins vote of confidence by 342 votes to 198 with 2 abstentions in the lower house.
Jan 24, 2008 —Prodi resigns after losing a vote of confidence. Prodi had lost his slim majority in the Senate after a small Catholic party left his ruling coalition.
Jan 30 —Napolitano asks Franco Marini, speaker of the Senate, to try to form an interim government aimed at reforming electoral rules.
Feb 4 —Senate speaker Marini, gives up trying to form a temporary government saying there is no support.
Feb 6 —President dissolves parliament.
April 13/14 —Parliamentary elections.
Reuters Italy votes in a general election on Sunday and Monday which was called after the centre-left government led by Romano Prodi, the country's 61st since World War Two, collapsed in January.
Here are some key facts about the country.
Area: 301,278 sq km (116,323 sq miles). Italy has borders in the north with Switzerland and Austria, with France to the west and with Slovenia to the east.
Population: 58.2 million (2007)
Language: Italian
Ethnicity: Italian but includes small clusters of German-, French-, and Slovene-Italians in the north and Albanian-Italians and Greek-Italians in the south.
Religion: Ninety percent Roman Catholic and the other 10 percent includes Protestant and Jewish communities as well as a growing Muslim immigrant community.
Capital: Rome.
Economy: Italy 's caretaker government last month slashed its economic growth forecast for 2008 and hiked its target for the budget deficit, underscoring the tough inheritance for whoever wins the election.
It said the euro zone's third largest economy would grow just 0.6 percent in 2008, down from the 1.5 percent it had forecast last autumn.
Growth in 2007 came in below expected at 1.5 percent, little more than half the euro zone average of 2.7 percent and maintaining a trend which has seen Italy grow less than its partners for at least a decade. RECENT History: Despite its long history Italy only emerged as an independent political entity in 1861.
Fascist leader Benito Mussolini assumed dictatorial powers shortly after becoming prime minister in October 1922 and led Italy into World War Two as an ally of Nazi Germany.
After the Allied Victory in 1945, King Victor Emmanuel abdicated, Italy voted for a republic and its overseas empire was dissolved.
In the late 1970s terrorism began to pose a serious threat to Italy's political stability. In 1978, a former prime minister, Aldo Moro, was killed by the Red Brigades, a militant left-wing group.
The "Bribesville" graft probe in the early 1990s exposed widespread corruption in Italian politics and spurred the downfall of a political dynasty that had ruled the country since World War Two.
In 2006, the closest election in post-war history gave Romano Prodi such a narrow Senate majority that the defection of one tiny party forced him to resign in January 2008.
A messy electoral system and a plethora of political parties are two big factors behind the instability that has spawned 61 governments since 1945.
Italy Election Contenders' Policy Promises
Italy's election on Sunday and Monday pits Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right People of Freedom party against Walter Veltroni's Democratic party. Following are some of the proposals of the two leaders on election issues.
Economy
- Berlusconi:
* Raise state pensions, offer "baby bonus" to boost the birth rate and give rental aid to young couples and low earners.
* Attack tax evasion, cut "excessive" public spending and sell or rent up to 700 billion euros ($1.1 trillion) of public property (firms and real estate) to cut the deficit and debt.
- Veltroni:
* Provide tax benefits to pensioners and spending vouchers of at least 500 euros per year to 3 million low income families to help cope with rising inflation.
* Tackle tax evasion and sell off real estate. Cut public spending excluding interest on debt by 0.5 percentage points of GDP in first year and by a full point in each of the next two.
Crime/Security
- Berlusconi:
* Tax incentives to shop owners to install alarms and create higher jail sentences for violence against the police.
* Expel all illegal immigrants, and crack down on gypsy camps and "centres linked to the preaching of Muslim fundamentalism."
- Veltroni:
* Increase the duration of residency permits for immigrants but guarantee that expulsion orders for illegal immigrants are really carried out.
Foreign Policy
Neither party cites foreign policy among their main priorities but Berlusconi has always been a staunch ally of the United States while Veltroni would be expected to place greater emphasis on Italy's relations with France and Germany.
- Berlusconi:
- Veltroni:
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