Taiwan's two nation-wide referendums are approaching. On March 22, Taiwan's 22 million people will elect their new president and vote to decide the nation's application for U.N. membership.
Since the lifting of martial law in 1987 and the enactment of a series of constitutional reforms, Taiwan has travelled a long and rugged path to democracy.
In 1996, Taiwanese people elected their first president, Lee Teng-hui, despite Beijing's missile threats. That marked the official start of direct presidential elections in Taiwan. Since then, democracy in Taiwan has been gradually maturing through many ups and downs, including the party change in 2000 and the election-eve shooting in 2004.
The U.N. membership referendum is considered by the United States as provocative. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) threatened to direct 100 more missiles toward Taiwan if the referendum is held. Even inside Taiwan, there are voices against the referendum. But the referendum may reflect the strong will of Taiwanese people to govern their own country.
This election will have a significant influence not only on Taiwan's future, but also on its relationship with mainland China. And the international community has been closely observing the progress of the elections. Up to now, 180 media and 25 think tanks from 35 countries and areas have sent out 540 reporters and experts to Taiwan to interview and monitor the election. The Government Information Office of Taiwan (GIO) opened its International Media Center to facilitate media work.
As the eve of the final election is approaching, the candidates are trying their best to canvass votes. Voters, on the other hand, are carefully observing the candidates' attitude on cross-Straits policies, economic policies, racial conflicts, opinion polls, the U.N. membership referendum, and Beijing's threats and recent crackdown of protests in Tibet. The candidates' moral character, political credibility, image, and ability to navigate difficult situations are also major factors that voters and media pay attention to.
Inter-Party Brawling and Mudslinging
On March 12, the Kuomintang (KMT) sent its finance minister to visit the offices of its rival, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), to publicly investigate graft allegations. The move raised tensions between both parties' supporters, who fought while the finance minister was in the building. The brawl was used by the DPP to prove its belief that sharing of democratic power and influence in Taiwan needs to be balanced.
Chen Hsien-chung, vice chairman of the DPP in Yunlin County accused the KMT of attempting to dominate Taiwan. "The KMT is strong in the legislature," said Chen, "and KMT lawmakers have caused many troubles. Once the KMT wins the election, who can make sure Ma Ying-jeou, KMT' presidential candidate, would really employ the 'no unification, no independence, no attack' policy?" He said the DPP could win only if it can show Taiwan voters the importance of deciding their own future.
In a campaign rally, DPP supporter Chuang Kuo-jung publicly used an obscenity to insult the late father of the KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou. Later, Chuang apologized under considerable pressure and resigned his post as a chief aide of Education Minister Tu Cheng-Sheng.
Tu Cheng-Sheng and the DPP candidate Frank Hsieh also publicly apologized for Chuang's "highly improper" behavior, wishing to appease the turbulence caused by the slander and minimized the damage to Hsieh's campaign. Ma immediately accepted Hsieh's apology and called for a stop to smear tactics.
Cross-Strait Common Market
Of course, the cross-strait relations between Taiwan and mainland China have been a hot-button topic during the campaign. In a speech in 2005, KMT vice presidential candidate Vincent Siew used the term "cross-strait common market," a term which has gained currency in the public discussions on the issue. Hsieh has bitterly criticized the idea saying that China's slave labor, poisonous foods, and low price agricultural products will lower the income of Taiwan's farmers and workers, raise the unemployment rate, and harm the health of Taiwan's people.
In a recent interview with the Epoch Times, Hsieh expressed his concerns over Taiwanese companies' rights and safety in China, saying the government should found an organization dedicated to helping Taiwan businesses in China. He also said that both the DPP and KMT should pay more attention to China's human rights records, and help Chinese people to achieve democracy.
On his campaign Web site, KMT candidate Ma expressed his regret at China's relentless efforts to constrict Taiwan's international space. In January, Ma Ying-jeou published a statement condemning China for its "unreasonable" and "unwise" diplomatic oppression of Taiwan. He said China's efforts to restrict Taiwan's presence on the world stage would sabotage cross-strait peace and promote ill feeling among Taiwanese.
On China's Violent Suppression of Tibet
Both Ma and Hsieh strongly condemned Beijing for violently suppressing the protest in Lhasa with the Chinese Liberation Army. Ma said, "The Taiwan government's attitude towards Tibet has been very consistent. We are willing to allow autonomy in Tibet. The Tibetan people have their own custom and religion, which we must respect."
Hsieh said, "Human rights is a subject the international society is concerned about. I have seen the report about the Tibet protest and I am opposed to any form of violent suppression."
"Beijing's suppression of Tibet is a hard lesson for us. Once the cross-strait common market" starts, "Beijing will resort to violence to suppress any kind of human rights or security problems," Hsieh added. He repeated his strong opposition against the common-strait, common market or one-China principle, stressing that only when the two parties put aside their differences and unite will Taiwan have the power to negotiate with China.
Ma has said that the situation in Tibet will deteriorate if Beijing continues to suppress the Tibetans. He added that if he wins the presidential election, he will not rule out the option of boycotting the Beijing Olympics.
Hsieh said that a nation's leader must think long into the future and have a firm stance on issues. He said that Ma might have "spoken too hastily" to propose boycotting the Beijing Olympics at the expense of sacrificing Taiwan's right to compete in the Olympics.
He added that the most powerful weapon is to "stand together with us" by announcing to end the plan for ultimate reunification with China and end the cross-strait common market. By protesting the suppression of Tibet this way, Hsieh believes that it will put the greatest pressure on China and draw much more attention from the entire world.
According to the U.S. Defense Department's annual report on China's military, the actual military expenses China has spent on its Liberation Army for the past 11 years were three times more than the numbers published by Beijing. The report says that, as of November 2007, China's Liberation Army has targeted 900 to 1,070 short-range ballistic missiles towards Taiwan and is adding more than 100 missiles a year with a continuously improving range, accuracy and head capacity.
Contest to Win 2.7 Million Swing Voters
According to KMT's election support system, Ma Ying-Jeou and Vincent C. Siew have a very visible competitive advantage in drawing the support of the younger and female voters. Ma now leads in the age group between 20 and 29.
According to the Frank Hsieh and Su Tseng-Chang camp, they are working on winning the white-collar voters, but their votes are still 20 percent less than Ma and Siew, a gap the two DPP candidates must work to close in the final stages of the election campaign.
Latest Opinion Pole Projections
According to a Taiwanese presidential election law, no opinion poll about any presidential candidate or the election may be made public after March 12. Global Views monthly magazine released an opinion poll about the presidential election on March 11, which estimated a 75.1 percent voter turnout for the election, with 45.5 percent of voters supporting Ma and Siew and 26.9 percent supporting Hsieh and Su.
In the final hours leading up to Taiwan's presidential election, media have reported different support poll results. However, every poll showed that Ma still leads the election. Although the gap is slowly closing, the public believes that Ma is more likely to win the election. However, with the March 12 incident involving four lawmakers showing up at Hsieh's campaign headquarters and causing a physical conflict requiring police intervention and China's suppression of the Tibet protest, the base supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party might show their loyalty and turn the tide in Hsieh's favor.
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