SYDNEY—Australian scientists who developed a new theory of how earthquakes form in Pakistan hope it will lead to better forecasts of earthquakes and tsunamis around the world.
Scientists from the Research School of Earth Sciences at the Australian National University (ANU) found that some of the most dramatic earthquakes in Pakistan's Hindu Kush mountains were due to stretching of rock deep under the surface.
Their findings, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, are contrary to the theory that earthquakes usually result from abrasive collisions between tectonic plates.
"We've always thought of earthquakes as being brittle," ANU researcher Professor Gordon Lister said.
"But our research showed that the slow, ductile stretching of certain geological features can build up energy that is then suddenly released, causing major seismic upheaval."
Using computer modelling, the researchers were able to show that a long, sausage-shaped mass of rock was being stretched into the Earth's interior beneath the Hindu Kush region of northern Pakistan.
Like a piece of chewing gum the rock occasionally accelerates its rate of stretching, resulting in a rapid release of energy, which in turn may cause a massive earthquake.
Prof Lister believes the new theory will help scientists better understand how earthquakes occur worldwide, and could lead to better earthquake prediction systems.
"We're starting to push into the fundamentals of what leads to earthquakes, not just what happens during an earthquake. We call it understanding `nature's fury'," he said.
"It feeds into the potential for us to eventually develop new and innovative long-range forecasting techniques."
Despite the breakthrough, Prof Lister said not enough was being spent on earthquake research.
"We spent a billion dollars after Sumatra (Boxing Day tsunami) helping them get back on their feet, and we spent a percentage of that on a (tsunami) early warning system, but we haven't spent a penny on fundamental research aimed at an understanding of what's actually going on," he said.
He added that while some held the view that earthquake prediction was "hocus-pocus", new insights into the earth's geology, such as his team's discovery, were making it a more exact science.
"If you actually get serious scientists really having a go at it I think it's really within our sights.
"Data is starting to show up, because of our new techniques, where you can actually see ... movements taking place that will eventually turn into a major earthquake."
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