Canada is in a good mood.
A first-of-its kind poll to gauge how Canadians feel about their country found that most are generally upbeat about the future and are even happy with their politicians in Ottawa.
The inaugural "Mood of Canada" poll found that two out of three Canadians (65.8 percent) believe the country is moving in the right direction.
Of the 1,400 respondents, only 20.2 percent said it was moving in the wrong direction while 14 percent didn't know.
There was also a high degree of optimism for the economy in the year ahead, with almost half expecting it to get stronger in 2008, while only 19.8 percent said it will get weaker.
"The one big surprise is how optimistic everybody was," says Nik Nanos, president and CEO of Nanos Research, the Ottawa public opinion and research firm which conducted the poll.
With 2007 almost behind them, Canadians shared their views on six broadly based questions: the general direction of the country, the performance of the Harper government, federal/ provincial relations, the economy, Canada's international reputation and their personal financial situation.
Nanos says the poll contained a "fairly standard line of questioning that's been used around the world" to capture "the gut reaction" and "the directional lead" of Canadians.
"This isn't a report card, this is the mood of Canada," he says.
Graham Fox, an Ottawa-based public policy researcher, describes the Nanos poll as "top-notch in terms of the integrity of the research and the rigueur that goes into asking the questions."
As for the Conservative government and Prime Minister Stephen Harper's leadership, Nanos says that while people don't have "a warm fuzzy feeling or inspirational feeling" for Harper, the government got "very high marks from Canadians."
Ten percent of respondents gave the government a "very good" rating, 29.4 percent a "good" rating, and 38.1 percent rated it "average." Only nine percent gave the government poor performance marks.
"What Canadians see is a Prime Minister who hasn't made any major mistakes," says Nanos. "They do recognize the competence of the Prime Minister as a manager, some one who knows his mind on issues…they have respect for the job that he has done."
Controversial issues such as Canada's involvement in Afghanistan and its performance on the environment file did not impact the generally positive evaluation of the Harper government.
Fox believes the question of how this optimism would translate into votes is an issue of understanding. However, he says "the analyst in me says there's a lot of good news in that poll" for the Conservatives.
"Those are very credible numbers…this should give the government a lot of comfort as they look to an election year," he says.
Still, there are reasons for the Harper government to approach any election scenario with caution, says Nanos. Other polls show that a majority government remains out of the reach of the Conservatives, largely because of a gender gap with women voters and "the resilience of the Liberal Party brand in Ontario."
Canadians are also generally positive about federal/provincial relations, and that includes Quebec where the relationship has historically been both sensitive and important. On a scale of one to five, 42.7 percent of Quebecers rated relations at three.
Canadian youth are also highly optimistic, with 35.8 percent saying they're better off than a year ago. Nanos says it's understandable that young Canadians would be optimistic — despite carrying student loan debt — given Canada's strong job market and low unemployment rates.
However, the poll found that only 17.7 of those aged 60-plus share that optimism.
While 52.1 percent of those polled said there has been no change to their personal finances, 29.4 percent said they were better off than a year ago and 15.7 percent were worse off. This is aside from regional differences in respondents' views on the economy.
Despite historical concerns over equalization payments and the Atlantic accord, optimism was strongest in Atlantic Canada with 55.0 percent of those polled believing the economy would improve. Nanos attributes this to the value of real estate and the strong Canadian dollar.
"In 2007, regardless of where you lived in Canada, the personal value of your home probably increased and you saw the Canadian dollar respond."
Nanos calls this "the pocket book measurement" where Canadians personalize the economy and ask, "What does this mean to me? What does this mean for my job prospects?"
On foreign policy and Canada's reputation on the international stage, respondents in general had good feelings about Canada, but attitudes to specific countries might be different and personalized. Nanos gives China as an example.
"Canadians will focus on China when something happens that touches them directly like toxic toys coming into the country or jobs that are lost due to imports."
While this is the first poll of this nature, Nanos hopes to establish a tradition in which an annual year-end poll takes the temperature of Canada, asking the same questions each year. In the long run, this will create a data bank for a comparative analysis of the mood of Canadians, he says.
Commissioned by the Montreal-based Institute for Research on Public Policy, the results of the poll and analysis were published in the Institute's December issue of Policy Options.
The poll is accurate to within a margin of 3.1 percent, 19 times out of 20.
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