The Wallabies will begin their Rugby World Cup campaign this Saturday by beating the Japanese in Lyon, France.
Luckily for the Australians, they are in the weakest of the four pools, so they will continue through to the quarter-finals unbeaten, disposing of Wales on September 15, Fiji on September 23 and Canada on September 29.
Then the trouble starts. The Wallabies will meet either England or South Africa in a quarter-final in Marseille on either October 6 or 7, depending on results. England are in poor condition, but should match both Australia and South Africa – so the Wallabies will need good form and a touch of luck to win.
If they progress, they will almost certainly play France or the All Blacks in a semi-final in Saint-Denis on October 14 or 15, depending on results. The All Blacks are the tournament favourite and in my opinion France are second-favourite, aided by home-ground advantage.
A win would take the Wallabies through to the final in Saint-Denis on October 21, again probably against the All Blacks or France.
However, with all things being equal, the Wallabies will not make the final. They are not as good as either France or the All Blacks, are on a par with South Africa and are probably just better than England and Ireland.
Further, due to limited depth, injuries will hurt Australia more than the other sides, particularly in key areas.
For example, star flyhalf Stephen Larkham, who is injury prone, is crucial to Wallaby hopes. Almost as vital are captain and outside centre Stirling Mortlock and fullback Chris Latham, who is returning almost untested from a long injury break.
The scrum is weak despite the inclusion of four world-class players. They are the starting locks Dan Vickerman and Nathan Sharpe, and the two openside flankers George Smith and Phil Waugh.
Injury to any of these players will be disruptive – and, in Larkham's case, possibly devastating.
On the positive side, the Wallabies are the team most likely to win against the odds, particularly in major matches. This is due to a combination of self-belief and good luck – and, as the maxim goes, good teams make their own luck.
For that reason, fans can reasonably expect the unexpected, even a cup victory in Saint-Denis on October 21.
Form guide to the 2007 Rugby World Cup favourites
NEW ZEALAND
For: Have won a phenomenal 38 of 43 Tests under crafty coach Graham Henry. Unlike past Cups, appeared to be keeping tricks up their sleeve in lead up matches. Talent and depth to burn. Choke jibes will ensure they stay focused. Against: Perennial favourites but have only won once (1987). Enormous hope and expectation of home fans. Lineout can wobble under pressure.
SOUTH AFRICA
For: Great squad. Super pack built round lineout colossus Victor Matfield and finally matched by skilful, enterprising backs after breakthrough Super 14 season. Against: Tendency to retreat into conservative shell under pressure. No world-beating five eighth.
FRANCE
For: Home advantage is big. They often seem twice as good on French soil. Hosts have won two of the five World Cups. Strong lead up form. Methodical and physical with rugged defence under long-serving coach Bernard Laporte. Against: Tag of best rugby nation never to win it. Historically they've lacked the consistency to win the three big games back to back needed in World Cup.
AUSTRALIA
For: Traditionally a smart tournament-playing team who get the job done when it matters most, even if it isn't pretty. Only team to win it twice. Improved this season under John Connolly. Tough defence. Grit and belief. Against: Form mostly dreadful for previous three years. Question mark still over scrum. Need backrow to dominate more. Hard for Chris Latham to be at his best after knee surgery. Backline yet to really click.
IRELAND
For: Strong and battle-hardened first fifteen including classy backline, spearheaded by talismanic skipper Brian O'Driscoll. Against: Question mark over depth. In pool of death with world No.3 France and No.5 Argentina.
ENGLAND
For: Huge forward pack should dominate most in set pieces. 2003 hero Jonny Wilkinson's back. Against: No team has successfully defended the World Cup and few predecessors have had worse credentials, losing 15 of last 16 away matches. Unsettled and often unimaginative backline.
ARGENTINA
For: Probably their best World Cup squad yet ‑ tough, experienced and schooled in European club rugby. Have won 4 of last 5 Tests against France who are in their pool. Against: In pool of death (see Ireland). Lack of polish and finesse in backline attack.
WALES
For: Two games at home in Cardiff, including the key pool match v Australia. Sure to make quarter-finals from weak pool. Adventurous style can upset. Against: Shocking form. Have won only 4 of 16 under coach Gareth Jenkins. Smashed by England and France in warm up matches.
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