Can the Wallabies win the Rugby World Cup that starts in France next month? The short answer is no.
After finishing second in the last World Cup, which was held Down Under four years ago, Australian rugby has been in turmoil, with coaching dilemmas, administration problems, poor on-field performances and a series of embarrassing off-field incidents.
The true believers and the beautiful dreamers – myself included – hoped that the problems would end with the re-appointment of top sports administrator John O'Neill, who said, after replacing former boss Gary Flowers, "I am not a saviour."
How prophetic. Only last week two senior Wallabies were embroiled in controversy following a late-night drinking incident, which left a Brisbane cabbie in hospital.
As events unfolded, the two repeat offenders – superstar winger Lote Tuqiri and baby-faced prop Matt Dunning – were cleared of involvement in the assault. However, it was a bad look and the unrepentant players have been placed on a curfew.
Furthermore, the new Super 14 franchise, the Western Force, is under investigation over alleged, under-the-counter player payments.
Finally, the Wallabies are short on personnel. For example, they are dependent on injury prone, superstar flyhalf Stephen Larkham. If Larkham cannot play, the whole campaign will collapse.
Unfortunately, rising flyhalf star Kurtley Beale will be left at home to play for the Western Sydney Rams in the new, controversial Australian Rugby Championship.
Furthermore, the forward pack has weaknesses that will be exposed during the campaign, particularly with the props, the strongmen who support the whole team on their broad shoulders.
While on the forwards, the "scrum doctor", the eminent Alex Evans, 68, will miss the Cup campaign after cracking his ribs at training, which led to a collapsed lung and pneumonia.
Meanwhile, the English stakes have risen with the return of star flyhalf Jonny Wilkinson, who has been plagued with injury ever since kicking the winning field goal, to steal the world cup from Australia in Sydney four years ago.
Given Australia's slim chance of winning, one could ask: "What's the point?"
Well, there is one big point – the Wallabies have a history of winning big matches against the odds.
And even though they are not the best team in the world, they are the only side to have won the world cup twice.
And, as already stated, they almost won a third title in Sydney four years ago, after steamrolling the favoured All Blacks in the process.
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