HONG KONG-—Looking back over the 10 years since Britain returned Hong Kong to China, some may say the former colonial crown jewel has become even more radiant.
Veteran democracy crusader Martin Lee thinks the people have been duped and the political system hijacked.
"The big promise, of course, was 'one country, two systems, Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong with a high degree of autonomy'. This promise was made by Deng Xiaoping, the paramount leader," said the lawmaker, referring to the late Chinese leader who in the early 1980s engineered the territory's return.
But regrettably, Lee said, "Beijing has decided to adopt a hands-on policy ... It's now 'one country, one system, Beijing people ruling Hong Kong with a high degree of control'."
This cosmopolitan city has all the accoutrements of a liberal society–a free press, a laissez-faire economy, rule of law and an educated populace with high per capita income. It even has a founding legal charter, the Basic Law, that lays out universal suffrage as the goal.
Under the current arrangement, the Chief Executive is picked by a panel of 800 people stacked in Beijing's favour. Half of the 60-seat legislature is elected by popular vote, and half selected by "functional constituencies", or business groups.
Full democracy remains elusive. Critics say that is because Beijing has increased, rather than decreased, its hand in the mix since the handover.
"Any progress has been minimal because the central government in Beijing doesn't want to see Hong Kong become a kind of a Western political base for subverting the mainland system," said Sonny Lo of the University of Waterloo in Canada, formerly a political analyst and pollster in Hong Kong.
The city's influential business elite, too, are a force against change, sending what some say is the wrong message to Beijing.
Watershed
A turning point of the past decade came on July 1, 2003, when anger over a controversial anti-subversion draft law and a raft of other issues, including a weak economy and the SARS epidemic–overseen by deeply unpopular then-chief executive Tung Chee-hwa–boiled over into a protest that drew more than half a million people onto the streets.
It was a wake-up call for Beijing, which started paying more attention to the territory and took a more active role in shaping its political development. Within a year, China's leaders ruled out direct elections in the near future.
The 2003 march gave the lie to the belief that ever-practical Hong Kongers were too busy making money to care about politics.
"The reality is that any time the government steps on the tiger's tail, the tiger turns around and bites them thoroughly," said Hong Kong Baptist University's Michael Degolyer, who has carried out extensive public opinion surveys in the territory.
"To say that there is no tiger in the room, repeatedly, as people say whenever they say Hong Kong people are politically apathetic and don't care about politics, is to simply be wandering around blindfolded back and forth and occasionally step on that tail."
Poll after poll shows that Hong Kong people want democracy, and the pressure is growing.
The sometimes fractious pro-democracy parties joined hands earlier this year and fielded a candidate for the Chief Executive election in March. Lawmaker Alan Leong had no chance of winning, but he surprised many by winning enough nominations from the committee to make it onto the ballot.
"I think it's given people a taste of how you ... can force the candidates to be somewhat more forthcoming in terms of their manifesto, their platforms," said former top civil servant Anson Chan, who wields considerable moral authority in the city.
It also showed that the democrats might be taking the concept of being a "loyal opposition" to heart. Pro-democracy politicians are participating in a scheme to draft a legislative "green paper" that will put forward possible models for democracy.
The paper, due out this summer, has become the focus of attention.
Current Chief Executive Donald Tsang, who has promised to "resolve" the universal suffrage issue by 2012, says he will pitch to Beijing whichever model wins the support of 60 percent of Hong Kong people.
"Chinese Characteristics"
What emerges from the "green paper" process is likely to map the way forward, but many in the pro-democracy camp are worried about pressure from Beijing for a system in which candidates would be vetted first.
"You can say (that is) 'democratic elections with Chinese characteristics', which means, unfortunately, in that context it's a sham," said Martin Lee.
Regardless, analysts say that after this year's poll it is hard for the public to imagine an uncontested election ever happening again, and that may give Alan Leong and the democrats an edge–unless Beijing steps in to move the goal posts again.
"People know a lot more about him as a result of the last six months and now he can build on that," said George Cautherley, one of a rare breed of Hong Kong businessman who openly donated money to Leong's groundbreaking campaign this year, despite the risk of offending Beijing.
"It's what you might call the conservative forces who are going to have a much bigger problem in trying to get out a candidate."
Five years before the next Chief Executive election may seem a long time, but it's not.
"The Chinese are getting very antsy about 2012," Degolyer said. "For them, five years is an extremely short time in politics."
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