As fighting continues between troops and Islamic militants in northern Lebanon, Middle East observers say the stability of the country is fragile and much depends on the Lebanese army remaining united.
Intense fighting in the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp, home to more than 30,000 Palestinian refugees, has seen over 79 people dead since Sunday May 20, making it Lebanon's worst internal violence since the 1975-90 civil war.
Professor Michael Humphrey, a specialist in Middle Eastern affairs at Sydney University, said Lebanon was vulnerable to many points of confrontation and the Government and army would be stretched to cope.
"This [the recent fighting] is highlighting the volatility of those kinds of confrontations, which could certainly escalate," Professor Humphrey told The Epoch Times. "Everyone is worried about them escalating.
"The issue will be, as in a civil war, whether the Lebanese army can hold together."
Professor Humphrey said there were fundamental points of tension within the Lebanese community, which would test the state's ability to govern. One, he said, was foundational and was to do with the balance between Christian and Muslim representation as set up by the French at the end of the World War I.
"There was quite a deliberate strategy [by the French] to create Lebanon as a Christian state and part of the whole dilemma of Lebanese national identity historically and, in a sense still today, is whether Lebanon looks to the west or looks to the east," he said.
It is estimated that Muslims make up around 65 per cent of Lebanon's population today, but there is also a large Christian population, predominantly Catholic, Maronite and Orthodox, plus a sizeable Druze minority.
Professor Humphrey says tensions within Lebanon have been further compounded by the large number of Palestinian refugees who fled to Lebanon in 1948 after the creation of Israel.
Around 400,000 Palestinians—around 10 per cent of the population, now shelter in 12 refugee camps in Lebanon. Conditions are poor in the camps and Professor Humphrey says Palestinians have no rights to own a business, property or even citizenship.
Professor Humphrey says Lebanon is affected by its proximity to Israel and particularly Syria, which has been accused of assassinating former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri.
Lebanese politics have also been influenced by changes in the historical relationship between the Sunni and Shi'ite Muslim communities. What we are seeing in Lebanon and Iraq, he said, is the ascendancy of the Shi'ites from a poorer marginal group to "a significant political power".
This was evident in the rise of Hezbollah, an armed Shi'ite Muslim terrorist group, which gained seats in the Lebanese Parliament last year.
Despite its increase in power, however, Professor Humphrey said there seemed to be an abiding sense that Hezbollah wants to to remain part of Lebanon rather than "some kind of broader ideological notion of an Islamic state".
"Even if we were to talk about the role of Hezbollah and their connection to Iran or Syria, the truth is that in Lebanon, the Shi'ites are one community amongst seventeen."
This is one of the characteristics of Lebanese politics, he said, and at the end of the day Hezbollah, like any of the other contenders, had to learn to deal with others.
There is also the question of presidential elections in Lebanon in September, "which will be a contest over whether a pro-Syrian or not pro-Syrian president is elected", Professor Humphrey said.
While it will be the Government's ability to maintain control during the intense juggling of interests, it may be the Lebanese army which will determine the outcome, Professor Humphrey added.
"The issue will be…whether, if there is a real confrontation across communities or across new political divides, whether the army would hold together.
"That is really the crux of the issue now," he said.
Feeds