Estimates of a possible pandemic flu outbreak in the U.S. could cause 87.5 million people to miss work for at least three weeks due to being sick or taking care of sick family members. The U.S. gross domestic product would then drop more than 5.5% in each state, leading to an estimated $683 billion loss, and the second worst recession since World War II, according to a new study by the Trust for American's Health (TFAH), a nonprofit organization. "The U.S. is not prepared to face an economic shock of this magnitude," said Jeff Levi, PhD, Executive Director of TFAH.
The report, Pandemic Flu and Potential for U.S. Economic Recession, estimates at least 30% of the population or 90 million people will become sick during a severe flu outbreak, leading to 2.25 million deaths. The cycle of a pandemic could last 18 months with outbreaks occurring over several 6-8 weeks periods.
According to the TFAH report, states heavily dependent on tourism and entertainment would be hit the hardest economically. Industries in tourism, entertainment and food services may experience an 80% loss in demand, while agriculture, construction, retail trade, finance and insurance a 10% loss in demand.
TFAH developed a model to project each state's losses during a severe pandemic flu outbreak based on studies by the Congressional Budget Office, National University/Lowy Institute in Australia, and BMO Nesbitt Burns Brokerage. "While important government preparedness efforts focusing mainly on medical and public health strategies are underway, efforts to prepare for the possible economic ramification have been seriously inadequate," said Levi, in a news release. "Stepping up pandemic preparedness planning is vital to our national and economic security."
TFAH suggests that public and private sector employers examine how to sustain essential operations during major outbreaks, modify family and medical leave policies, expand telecommunication capabilities, assess infection control at work, establish back-up means to maintain delivery of good and services, and update methods of communication with their workforce.
"Businesses need to determine the most important operations necessary to stay running and keep workers healthy," said Cori Green, Public Health RN, and Medical Reserve Corps Planner. The Medical Reserve Corps are local volunteers across the nation who prepare for and respond to emergencies and promote healthy living. "Letting employees who are sick stay home rather than be at work spreading an illness is very important."
Green suggests other measures for a healthy workforce. Specifically, she recommends employers to invite the local health department to provide flu shots to employees at the workplace annually, extend and increase time off policies, encourage good hand-washing techniques, provide information on preparedness, and create disaster or emergency stockpiles.
"I challenge businesses to see how many of their employees create stock piles after they themselves set the example," said Green. She recommends collecting items listed on www.panedemic flu.gov. For home stockpiles, Green said, "this can be simply done by purchasing one item at a time, such as an extra can of food or box of tissues, during weekly shopping at the grocery store or Target, Wal-Mart, or Kmart."
Both the American Red Cross and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend a 7 days supply of can foods, water, and other essentials for "all hazards," referring to tornadoes, flooding, and any other hazard, or medical outbreaks. Do not forget extra toilet paper, diapers, other hygiene supplies, and if there are pets, extra pet food and cat litter.
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