PARIS—Nearly 87% of France's 44.5 million registered voters have cast their initial votes for a new French president.
As most polls predicted, conservative Nicolas Sarkozy (29.6 percent) and Socialist Segolene Royal (25.1 percent) will face each other in a run-off election. François Bayrou, who had been considered a serious rival of Ms. Royal, earned only 18.7 percent of the vote, far below the polls' predictions. Right-wing extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen came in fourth with 11.5% of the vote, 7 points less than in 2002, when he defeated Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin and faced Chirac in a run-off.
The winner of the run-off will replace current President Jaques Chirac, who has held office for twelve years. Turnout for the election has been the highest seen since the beginning of France's Fifth Republic in 1958. Voter turnout this year is 15 percent higher than in 2002. The French electorate was captivated by this year's suspense-filled campaign season. This clearly illustrates how captivating the French people found this year's suspense-filled contest.
The first round of voting answered the question of who would oppose Nicolas Sarkozy in the run-off. For months the polls predicted that the former Interior Minister would garner thirty percent of the votes.
François Bayrou was the unexpected third man. The centrist leader and "scholarly farmer" had attracted a lot of attention recently with his willingness to build a national union government, "neither left, nor right." But in the end he did not get the votes he needed to make the run-off.
Among other candidates, LCR (Revolutionary Communist League) candidate Olivier Besancenot polled a surprisingly high 4.3 percent of the votes, in large part due to a youthful and dynamic communication campaign, which crafted popular slogans like, "Our lives are worth more than money."
Nationalist candidate Philippe De Villiers from Mouvement pour la France came in sixth with 2.6 percent of the votes. The six other candidates score between 0.3 and 1.7 percent.
The run-off will be held in two weeks, on the 6th of May. Although Nicolas Sarkozy has largely dominated the first round, the result of the run-off is far from certain. The outcome will be greatly influenced by which side the various lower-ranking candidates decide to endorse.
Analysts also point out that after bringing their respective platforms and programs to the voters for several months, the important factors now will be how the candidates express their differing personalities.
Sarkozy's team will very likely keep on describing Segolene Royal as a woman lacking the capacity to become a head of state.
Royal's supporters will on their side, likely too, focus on Nicolas Sarkozy's tough mentality as well as his alleged "lack of humanity."
Segolene Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy are scheduled to confront each other in a nationally-televised debate between May 2nd and May 4th.
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