Retired Brigadier General Tzvika Fogel, former Chief of staff for Israel's southern command and now the CEO of Marathon, a company for project management and process analysis said in a foreign press briefing near Gaza, that a war between Israel and Gaza Palestinians is likely to erupt between April 15th and May 15th.
He said that the war would probably break out after the Passover Holiday, in order not to damage or disturb holiday tourism.
Fogel claims that the reasons for the war from the Israeli side are the stabilization of terror in the Gaza strip, and the will of the Israeli leaders to show the public that they are capable of waging war, despite Israel's apparent weakness in last year's Lebanon incursion.
Fogel says that from Palestinian perspective, the Hamas terror organization that controls the government wants to show the Palestinian public that it can take care of their needs both militarily and politically.
Since the disengagement from Gaza 18 months ago, about 2000 Kassam missiles have been fired into the Western Negev region and on the towns surrounding the Gaza Strip. Some sources say this is a situation Israel cannot accept.
"If we'll take a look back 18 month ago," says Fogel, "Hamas said the Gaza settlements would be evacuated, and claimed 'We made them get out!' If we do not take action now, we will create a situation where Gaza becomes Hamas Land or even Al Qaeda Land.
"Hamas needs a war and wants to win. They want to do in Gaza what Hezbollah did in Lebanon. Hammas is being pressured to form a unity government, but Hammas wants to be the sole ruler of Gaza, it cannot do anything except the things that Iran tells it to do. For those reasons it is likely that war will breakout soon."
Fogel explains that Hamas' military capabilities are only getting better and that the 200 Kassam missiles that were fired on Israel in the last three months are only a preview of Hamas' real arsenal. "Is there another country that would stand 200 missiles in a time of non-war?" he asks.
When asked what Israel's casus belli would be, Fogel answered that Israel does not need an excuse. "Hezbollah showed us that we can't tolerate a situation were a terrorist organization becomes a real army."
"All the circumstances lead to an inevitable war. From Israel's perspective, over 200 Kassam missiles have been fired on Israel, and Israel can't take that." From a Palestinian perspective, Hamas does not want to form a unity government; it wants to rule Gaza. Further, Hamas can't recognize Israel. Most other nations hope Israel will "clean up the place," so that Hamas or Al Qaeda will not gain a permanent hold on the region.
A military source says that he expects the situation to worsen.
An official Israeli Defense Force spokesperson commented that this source was expressing a personal opinion, not official IDF thinking. The IDF spokesperson refused to officially comment on Fogel's statements.
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