There could be no victory in Iraq, Defence Minister Brendan Nelson said today, as he warned the country would continue to be wracked by violence even after coalition forces left.
Dr Nelson said the most important thing for Australia and other coalition nations was to ensure Iraqis could control their own destiny.
He said the worst outcome for Australia as a result of the Iraq conflict would be for the United States to revert to isolationism, profoundly damaging regional security.
Dr Nelson was speaking hours after the United Kingdom confirmed it would reduce its forces by 1,600 in coming months, with further withdrawals likely.
Denmark also said it would withdraw nearly all of its 460 troops in August, while Lithuania is considering pulling out its 50-strong force.
Dr Nelson said it might be politically expedient for Australia to also withdraw troops, but it would not be right.
"There is no such thing as victory in Iraq," he said in the keynote address to the annual Australian Defence Magazine conference.
"When people talk about victory or success in Iraq I don't think they should be thinking in terms of conventional victories or success.
"Success in Iraq will essentially mean that the democratically-elected Iraqi government, supported by its own Iraqi security forces, will be able to provide economic and defence security to its own people for the forseeable future.
"It will however be a country that will continue to be characterised by degrees of sectarian and other violence and al-Qaeda and other terrorists who so desperately want to make sure they prevail in Iraq will do everything to frustrate and undermine it."
Dr Nelson said anyone familiar with US domestic politics would understand the risk if the US adopted an isolationist foreign policy in response to a premature retreat from Iraq.
Regional security would suffer.
"Whatever anybody thinks about the Australia-US alliance ... it will be damaged if the US leaves Iraq in a situation where the al-Qaeda and others are able to say they have prevailed," he said.
Dr Nelson slammed Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd for backing Australian involvement in the war against terror in Afghanistan, but not in Iraq.
And he queried why opponents of Australia's presence in Iraq were not also advocating Australia withdraw from East Timor and the Solomon Islands.
"They know that if we leave that country (East Timor) prematurely we will see a return to the events that led to Australia going back in there with New Zealand in May last year," he said.
But Mr Rudd said the government needed to explain why it believed it was OK for Britain and Denmark to withdraw troops from Iraq, but not Australia.
"Why is it not OK for 520 Australian troops to be brought home to Australia some time next year. That's the question which Australians would like the answer to," he said.
Greens leader Bob Brown said the government should follow UK Prime Minister Tony Blair's lead and withdraw Australian forces.
"It seems that Mr Howard's got no strategy but to respond to whatever (US President) George Bush does," he told Sky News.
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