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Wet and Wild Prospects for Australia's East Coast

By Shar Adams
Epoch Times Australia Staff
Dec 31, 2007

Australia's largest home insurer says it is preparing for the effects of climate change on coastal property and has begun work on a policy to cover plummeting land values. (Torsten Blackwood/AFP/Getty Images)
Australia's largest home insurer says it is preparing for the effects of climate change on coastal property and has begun work on a policy to cover plummeting land values. (Torsten Blackwood/AFP/Getty Images)

"I am sick of it, sick of the rain, sick of the wind, sick of the weather. We're going home!" said one unhappy mother of her interrupted camping holiday on the normally pristine beaches of Fraser Island in Queensland.

Along with other areas down Australia's east coast, cyclonic weather pounded the nation's "Sunshine State" over the festive season, closing beaches and driving holiday-makers from their tents and coastal retreats, into their cars and on the road home.

An intense low-pressure system moved into the Coral Sea the week before Christmas and stayed till well into the New Year bringing 110 km/hr winds and five to six metre swells along the tropical coast.

Big wave surfers, seeking the ride of their lives, flocked to closed beaches on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, while onlookers huddled together to avoid being strafed by wind, rain and spray.

Fearing king tides and possible storm surges state emergency workers evacuated all campers on the beachside of Fraser Island, the world's largest sand island, while warnings were issued to campers inland and on the western, bay side that they could also be evacuated should the low intensify.

La Niņa Arrives

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland can expect more cyclone activity this summer as warmer waters in the tropics engender La Niņa or wet weather conditions.

The Bureau's Regional Director, Jim Davidson said the general climate pattern showed characteristics of a relatively weak La Niņa, the latter linked to increased monsoonal activity as opposed to the El Niņo or drought related system.

This year, the La Niņa effect has been complicated by sea surface temperatures in the deep north being cooler than would normally be expected. This, he said, made it more of a challenge than forecasting during periods where the climate indicators were better defined such as a strong El Niņo or La Niņa.

"It's only when we see a strong El Niņo or La Niņa that we can predict with any degree of confidence whether cyclone numbers in the Coral Sea are likely to be lower or higher than the long term average of three," Mr Davidson said.

It is possible however that La Niņa conditions could strengthen over the next few months, he said. In this event the likelihood of a devastating cyclone developing increases. Two years after the category five Cyclone Larry devastated the Queensland coastal town of Innisfail many residents are still sheltering under tarpaulin roofs.

The 290 kilometre an hour winds, driving rain and floods destroyed houses and the states banana crops causing damage in the region estimated upwards of half a billion dollars.

According to climate change analysts, residents of coastal regions in the north, north-western and north-eastern regions of Australia may increasingly have to learn to live with these sort of events.

Global Warming the Culprit

Heightened cyclonic activity as a result of global warming has also been predicted for Queensland coastal regions as far south as the Gold Coast.

Apart from damage incurred from extreme winds, king tides combined with rising sea levels and storm surges will result in inevitable land erosion along the populated regions of the coast, they say.

Coastal management analysts have estimated that over 700 000 beachfront residences along the New South Wales and Queensland coasts are at risk from frontal dune erosion alone.

This summer's low pressure conditions, which have already gouged valuable sand from fragile beachfronts, will unsettle locals, particularly those in the densely populated south-east Queensland corner who are already coming to terms with the vulnerability of their coastal tenure as a result of global warming.

One wealthy Gold Coast resident said she was renovating a house in the Gold Coast hinterland region of the Tallebudgera Valley in preparation for the inevitable, and she is not alone.

"Properties are being snapped up in the Valley right now," she told The Epoch Times, "and a lot of them are from Jefferson Lane."

Situated at the southern relatively uncluttered end of the "Golden Coast," Jefferson Lane sports some of the most expensive beachfront mansions in Australia.

No Insurance

Insurance Australia Group Ltd, Australia's largest home insurer, says it is preparing for the effects of climate change on coastal property and has begun work on a policy to cover plummeting land values.

"That's certainly something that we've been having some preliminary discussions with a number of people in government about, and certainly I think there's increasing recognition that it's going to be a problem going forward," Tony Coleman, IAG's Chief Risk Officer told the ABC.

Over 85 per cent of Australians live within a few kilometers of a beach or coastal waterway, he said. Flood insurance is difficult to obtain at the best of times, and there are presently no policies covering rising sea levels.

"If sea levels continue to rise, eventually the property becomes inundated and the real value of the property, the vast bulk of its value will be in the value of the land which of course is then unusable. And that's of course not insured by property insurance.

"So at that point a lot of waterfront landowners and banks and other financial institutions that have lent money against the value of those properties, are going to find that they suffer very serious losses and it's not at all obvious at the moment who would compensate them," Mr Coleman said.


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