Editor's Note: Wang Zhaojun is a standing member of the Anhui Province Political Consultative Commission. He published this open letter on October 22. This letter is a shorter version of the original.
Greetings, Honorable President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiaobao!
I am a standing member of the Anhui Province Political Consultative Commission. My name is Wang Zhaojun.
The Chinese Communist Party's 17th National Congress has been brought to a close. Your leadership position is further consolidated and you now should have the energy and capability to implement your policies. Therefore, I have decided to write you this open letter, which is titled "Strategies for a Harmonious Society."
President Hu, immediately after taking office you proposed your political guideline of "Constructing a Harmonious Society" and the "Concept of Scientific Development" which emphasized that "people shall be the fundamental foundation of everything." These proposals were widely praised both at home and abroad because they indeed addressed the key problems in China. However, a long time has passed, the situation in China has not become any better or moved any closer to the guidelines of your proposals; on the contrary, things have become much worse in many respects.
There is certainly hearsay evidence of your being restrained from exercising your political powers. For example, there is a saying: "The orders issued by the new leaders simply vanish before they get out of Zhongnanhai."[1] However, with the conclusion of the 17th National Congress, you should begin to solidly implement your political goals and show your true colors in any way possible. Some may say: "President Hu and Premier Wen have already started to do so, as shown by the public announcements, resolutions, and documents from the Communist Party's 17th National Congress."
Nonetheless, we have learned from the history of the international communist movement, especially the Chinese Communist Party's history, that the resolutions and documents from all National Congresses are products of compromise and reconciliation. The divergent stories after each Congress are simply too numerous to enumerate.
The Chinese people have lived through your first term in anxious expectation. We should not allow the same situation to repeat itself in your second term; China's reality does not allow you to spend your second term in the same manner.
A Pair of Cluster Bombs in China's Society
It is no exaggeration to say that there are numerous hidden bombs in China's society. Some you may leave unattended until after your second term, but there are some you cannot afford to circumvent and have to face right now.
A. The First Bomb for China—the Stock Market
The current Chinese stock market is like "The Emperor's New Clothes." Almost everyone is aware of the gigantic "bubble" crisis inherent in today's stock market, yet the stock values are still increasing like crazy. It happens because the media are still touting that "it is a great accomplishment of the 'reform and open-up' policy. We are witnessing a once-in-a-century big bull market." Of course, it is mainly because you hope it is a big bull market, as do ordinary citizens. However, the reality will turn out to be a big joke for all of us.
Today's stock market in China is no longer the market of two years ago, before the "stock reform."
China's stock market was initiated in the 1990's. From the very beginning, the stock market has been under the control of the state to raise funds for state-run enterprises and to help with their reforms. At first, it was just a small-scale initial try with many ups and downs as well as behind-the-scene operations. Due to its size, many years of a bear market would not constitute any threat to social and political stability, even if the market fell all the way to the bottom.
Now things have completely changed. Since the second half of 2006, the stock market has kept skyrocketing all the way from 3.3 trillion yuan to 18 trillion yuan as of May 30, 2007. Now, there are more than one hundred million people involved in stock trading. Just before I completed this letter, the stock value increased by another 50 percent in less than half a year. That being the case, in terms of the role of the stock market in China's economy and the influence of Chinese stockholders, the change can well shake the entire society. Actually, China's stock market is not a big bull market, but rather a big gamble. Let me list the reasons for this below:
(1) China's stock market is weak at birth
As a matter of fact, the so-called "stock reform" is as of today nothing but a concept. The "reform," at the very most, simply converts reserved stocks to exchangeable stocks, but it has zero impact on the company's internal reform.
As a result, the companies that are publicly traded on the stock market continue to operate like state-run companies with no differentiation between politics and business or between the Party and administration.
Publicly traded companies are even worse off than state-run enterprises because the leaders hold both the reserve stock shares—which help them maintain their leadership positions—and the exchangeable stocks that add to their wealth. This unique (preferential) status has become their unmatched privilege.
What about China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC)? As the plenipotentiary minister of the government, the CSRC resells those stocks at overly inflated values to the secondary market after inspecting the stock performance. The CSRC is thus creating the bubble artificially. Monopoly, corruption, undue management, and the series of problems from the upper level to the lower level, are the root problems in China's stock market.
(2) China's economy "sick at birth"
Why was a huge amount of money suddenly transferred away from banks as soon as the message of "stock reform" came out? Initially, the CSRC was worried that the "reform" could well be a short-lived one due to lack of funds. As a result, some people decided to sell state-owned stocks to foreign investment banks at below market value. Unexpectedly, there was a wild influx of funds into the stock market. Investors indeed failed to predict how anxious people were to take money out of banks; the withdrawal of money was just like popcorn jumping out of an over-heated wok. Why? It was because simply putting money in the bank has no benefit; money merely depreciates in value in a bank savings account. It does not mean that China's economy is doing great and that there is a surplus of capital. The root cause of the "bubble" is that there is no other way for the investment to have any meaningful return other than from trading stocks. China's economy has been sick since its birth, and the sickness is quite severe.
(3) A big gamble
The stock market, characterized by its partially analyzable and partially mysterious features, balances all kinds of unpredictable economic risks in a society. If all its mysteries could be seen through—particularly behind-the-scenes factors—it would be the source of a "once-in-a-century big bull market" eruption.
It is a well-known fact that China's stock market is a political market, a policy market.
Because the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is always "great, glorious, and correct", and always gives prominence to politics, the CCP is bearing all the risks of China's stock market in order to secure the CCP's 17th National Congress, and to ensure a grand and showy Olympics.
There is not a single state leadership in the whole world willing to trap itself in the stock market. However, the CCP grips the stock market and won't let go, thus attaching a bomb to itself. It is indeed very unwise.
Of course, you can continue to cover up the stock crisis and hope to circumvent it with a series of action plans. For instance the ongoing integration of Hong Kong Red Chips into the inland market; reorganization of the large state-run enterprises under the jurisdiction of the state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council and putting them in the stock market; accelerating initial public offerings of civil high-tech enterprises; allowing Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII) to invest in overseas markets; having the Central Bank increase the interest rate and lowering taxes, increasing bank reserves, issuing special treasuries, and so on and so forth.
I cannot comment on the actual effect of these actions; however, there is one thing I can declare with assurance: there is no way you can manipulate and alter the laws of economics.
B. The Second Bomb for China—Commodity Prices
As China's stock market continues to be the gamble-like "bull market," China's commodity prices keep rising uncontrollably, to an unbearable point for the Chinese people.
The stock market and commodity prices form two social bombs—they are a pair of cluster bombs that none of us, including yourself, can manage to avoid.
Needless to say, in addition to a rising stock market, there are other factors contributing to the increase in commodity prices. All these factors could well bring a disaster equally terrible, if not worse, such as a big collapse of the stock market.
Here is the strategy I would like to propose to you:
Now that the 17th Congress, during which you have achieved your political goals and secured your power, has come to an end, I suggest that from now on the state gradually separate itself from the stock market. The stock bubble could burst at any time. Separation from the stock market right now would be better than maintaining the current status until the "bubble" finally bursts. If we do nothing about it at the moment, stockholders will have certain gain for some time, but the loss in the end will be a lot more tragic, with a greater number of stockholders suffering. The resentment from people would be even greater. Chinese leaders should poke the "bubble" as soon as possible, and try to do this in a moderate, controlled manner.
It is indeed very difficult. It is very difficult to avoid causing instability of the stock market and to society. Yet it is not the fault of the current leaders; there are historical reasons at play. Thus, it needs to be explained and clarified to all Chinese people that the bursting of the "bubble" of the "big bull market" is an inevitable event that will hit us sooner or later. Chinese leaders should take this opportunity as a turning point to initiate an all-round reform in the stock market, in finance, and even in China's economic and political reforms.
If you explain all this clearly to the Chinese people and launch a series of reform objectives and plans, our people will be understanding and forgiving.
The burst of the stock market "bubble" will provide you the best opportunity to start an all-inclusive reform in China, especially political reform. It is indeed an excellent test of your resoluteness and talent as political leaders.
However, if when the bubble bursts you do not initiate the reforms and only intend to cover up your responsibility by means of propaganda, it is easy to imagine what a huge crisis China will face at that time.
Demystifying China's 'Rapid Growth'
It is critical to demystify China's "rapid growth." This will force us to face the reality with truthfulness, instead of resisting progress and deceiving the country and its people.
In 2003, during the Anhui Provincial Political Consultative Commission Conference, the commission members toured several cities in Anhui. At the provincial capital Hefei, we toured Xinxing Industrial and Development Zone. In this city alone, there are at least three automobile manufacturing plants. Amidst the noise of the production line, I walked up to the mayor and said appreciatively, "You are the CEO of this city!" The mayor nodded with pride.
As I thought more about this afterwards, I realized that there are several similar car plants in the country. There are at least 9 powerful domestic competitors in the auto industry. This investment of over 10 billion yuan is such a huge risk!
When touring the Industrial and Development Zone, we saw that a "Science City" of over 30 square kilometers is being planned, which is the size of 42 Forbidden Cities in Beijing. I also know that as early as 10 years ago, the city built some other buildings in an "economic and technical development zone," where about half of the buildings are still vacant. Why are they building a "Science City" then? I am the deputy director of the Association of Hi-Tech Entrepreneurs for the province. Our office is located in Hefei, yet I have never seen or heard of the mayor or the provincial governor visiting our association! It is true that the University of Science and Technology of China is located in Hefei. Is the university alone enough to warrant building the "Science City"? Which research projects at the university have practical value? How long will it take for these projects to "graduate" from the lab? How long will it take to turn them into actual products? How much funding is required? How will the market be at that time? Who are the competitors both domestically and internationally? What do we know about these competitors? I can say with confidence that neither the mayor nor the governor knows the answers to these questions.
Of course, we can't ask that they know everything. Yet this is a critical problem for China. This "Science City" will be run by the government; its officials will be appointed by the government; investment and land leases are all carried out through the government. But our government officials should not be directly running businesses! As early as the 1980s, the economic and political reforms primarily focused on two points: separation between the Party and government, and separation between government and business. That was the recommendation for big-picture reform after the leadership and think-tanks thoroughly studied the CCP's experience since 1949. However, these separations were terminated after the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989. As a result, no matter how many theories and terms are proposed by the "knowledge elites," as long as the Party and government, and government and business are not separated, all the talks are in vain!
We can imagine the scale of investment for an area as large as 42 Forbidden Cities. Yet at the same time, the development zone, which started construction 10 years ago, is still half empty, awaiting investment and business. The only thing it has going for it is increased property rates. The fate of this new "Science City" seems crystal clear to me.
The "rapid economic growth" China is experiencing today is not driven by the market, but by the government. More specifically, the local government and certain officials. It can be summarized as "having a goal but without a market; having impulse but without a plan; having the present but without a future." It is actually quite similar to the 1958 Great Leap Forward movement.
It differs from the Great Leap Forward in that money has replaced slogans, and individualism has replaced group activities. The key similarity is that both ignore science and merely depend on the "leadership of the Party."
Economies that are primarily driven by the government tend to show great development in areas that are of interest to government officials. Beyond these interests, the economy suffers. For example, many locally owned enterprises do not make it onto the officials' radar, are thus suffering damage, and subsequently retreating.
I once visited the home village of my housekeeper. The village was less than 50 km from Hefei and less than 45 km from the "Science City." This place was so impoverished that it could be used for filming a war movie during the civil war; all that would be needed is a few more corpses. I couldn't help my tears from welling up. I had not realized that the countryside was still so underdeveloped, and that peasants' lives were still so miserable.
Such a close distance, yet such a huge contrast. Is such economic development sustainable?
One example of unsustainable development is the coal merchants of Shaan'xi Province. Because of relentless coal excavation, cities that were previously clean and beautiful have been heavily polluted. Coal produced in China is sold to the Japanese at a low price. The Japanese buyers in turn buried the coal in the ocean to "save for future generations." I wonder what other fellow Chinese people think when they hear this true story.
Our imports and exports work this way: we use 800 million shirts to trade one passenger airplane; we only make $1 profit for each exported DVD player, yet we have to pay over $4 for patent fees to foreign companies—and even our so-called "high-tech" electronics and engineering products only make profits in single-digit percentages. If the Chinese yuan appreciates against the U.S. dollar, many export-heavy businesses will need to close shop. The labor of the Chinese people is so cheap, but we are being so clumsy! What aspect of this net export surplus should we be so proud of? Why should we flaunt our foreign currency reserves? At the beginning of the 'Open and Reform' policy in the 1980s, local government officials used various favorable tax treatments to attract businesses to compensate for China's weak economic base. Yet today, our continued production of low-end merchandise reveals our most obvious flaws: laziness, bureaucracy, and corruption. With that, all of the political accomplishments are actually records of failure.
Does China have a market economy? Yes, it does. Both the government-driven economy and the government official-driven economy are now commercialized. Without the incentive of money, it won't progress very fast. But is the Chinese economy truly a market economy? No. The government is not an "invisible hand;" it is visible, as it directly controls the economy and allocates local and regional resources. Yet it does not have to be responsible for the costs, risks, and losses involved in such activities. As such, in China, especially at the present time, the central government should carry out macro planning and allocation. Otherwise local administration and overall lack of planning will lead to a collapse, far faster and more fierce than any to be seen in a market economy.
In any case, China has indeed undergone much hardship. Led by the government and its officials, the economy has accumulated tremendous assets. This accumulation is at the expense of an excessively stressed environment, over-spent resources, and the health and well being of workers. Have the accumulated assets been used in turn to remedy the damages done to the environment, resources, and workers? Have they been used to advance sustainable development, invest in improved technology, education, and medicine, thus improving China's position in the world and improving domestic productivity?
China has over US$1 trillion in foreign currency reserves. Although it appears that China is getting richer and stronger, it has created a huge stagnation in the flow of capital. Does China really have "too much" capital? This is a completely false image, which will be brought to light very soon.
The "excess" money in China is unable to go where it needs to due to monopolization and stagnation in the financial sector. Many small businesses owned by individuals can only get loans by bribing officials; they are struggling and starving. It is nearly impossible for the high-tech small businesses to truly utilize technology in production. In state-run enterprises, only the subjects that the officials are interested in receive attention, or there is no development. Both agriculture and environmental protection require large sums of money. In terms of agriculture, it has been difficult to even raise the agricultural level, let alone modernize. The environmental front is an utter disaster.
As state-run banks indulge in monopolization and corruption, offering negative interest rates, account holders finally turned to the stock market. Suddenly, a huge gush of capital flooded the stock market. Funds flow through the stock market into broader terrain, beyond the central government's control—especially into real estate, which is a taboo for the central government. At present, macroeconomic control has failed.
In the meantime, local government officials continue to create the "miracle of fast economic growth" with even more zeal.
It is possible to understand why the consequences of excess consumption of resources, and damage to the environment are not immediately apparent—resources seem intangible to most people, and cancer development caused by a degenerate environment may be decades away. At that time, it may become difficult to trace whose fault it was. However, the bubbles of the stock market and escalating inflation will soon burst the myth of "rapid development." Along with it, the dream of a great nation establishing itself will also disappear. At that time, the only things left in China will be brightly-lit skyscrapers, low-quality highways, railroads, bridges and communication networks, inefficient power plants, heavy chemical plants, low-quality processing factories, a general lack of resources, and a polluted environment. Our "software," including a true market economy model, especially for the high-tech industry, will almost have to start from scratch. Even worse, the "cultural capital" of a civil, modern country will be negative due to society-wide corruption.
If we calm down and examine what is happening, we will see that the so-called "rapid growth" is not only immoral, but also criminal in nature. It destroys resources and the environment, profiting a small minority at the cost of the majority. To use an analogy, it is like a father opening up the wallets of his son, grandson, and great grandson, and robbed them of their money to fill his own pocket. What is left for his offspring is disaster and punishment!
China's Real Estate Market: The "Unbreakable" Bubble
If the tale of China's high economic growth rate has been created by the government—especially by zealous local officials—then China's real estate enterprise epitomizes this economic model.
In reality, China's real estate market has long been a bubble, even though China has a huge market for real estate consumption. It is an undisputable reality that even in cities where housing prices have soared, such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, an alarming percentage of houses remain empty. Even more surprising, under these circumstances, not only have housing prices not dropped, but they have increased instead. This clearly violates market principles.
Why has this happened?
The reason lies in the fact that the government controls land; it is the government that has developed the land and put up the "For sale" signs after taking down old houses and relocating their residents. The big landowner, the government, will not allow housing prices to fall, since it involves the national treasury, officials' slush funds, political achievement records, and certain individuals' own wallets.
Because the "big boss" insists on the basic stance of not allowing housing price to drop, those seeking the least risk and the highest interest invest here, jacking up the prices for land and housing. That's why in China where land resources are scarce, it is difficult to find a way to profitably invest capital, and the economy is shrinking, all the while the housing market appears red hot.
The higher the housing prices, the higher the percentage of empty houses. Will the bubble break?
The answer is: No. Even with the streaming of "new policies" under macro-economic adjustment, even if for a short while housing prices may drop in order to get rid of empty houses, the basic stance of the "big boss" is unshakable, therefore housing prices will bounce back—unless China's banking system totally collapses, which is what the central government fears the most.
The "big boss'" wallet in this case are state-owned banks, so in China, the real estate bubble doesn't manifest as falling housing prices, but surfaces instead as the messy accounts of state-owned banks. With the support of state-owned banks, the "big boss" can remain solid with its "basic stance". So long as this "basic stance" can be maintained, funds from various sources, including from overseas investment, will flow in. Danger can be transformed into safety, and the "big boss" can open the door more widely with wild joy…
Clearly this state of "prosperity" and "high growth rates" will bring the central government wholesale disaster.
What can be done then? Privatize land.
Whether it be in urban or rural areas, all land should be privatized.
In today's China, be it in urban or rural areas, when land is developed, you will see houses being torn down and people being relocated; you will see conflicts between government officials and the common people and between police and citizens. Officials proclaim their argument: the land belongs to the state. They represent the state and cover up all the dark dealings between local officials and developers. With war-like scenes springing up so often during peacetime, this is really a kind of "miracle" created by our government, which has become a land-seller and participant in disputes to the benefit of the developers.
The reason behind this situation is the fundamental illegality of China's land system; China's land tenure system is based on legal flaws.
China's policymakers must face this reality and step out from it: return land tenure rights to the peasants! This is not about giving peasants contracts to use the land, but about granting them ownership of the land. Only then will peasants be able to have land that is close their hearts, and poverty in the countryside will fundamentally change. Otherwise any reforms in the countryside will merely be trivial ones that don't produce any real effect.
Reform is inevitable; reform is a must.
Today, China's urban housing prices remain high. How can the bubble be broken and houses returned to their market value? Returning land to private ownership is a road that must be taken—it has to be taken.
Shortcomings of Government and Society
A. Government Officials' Game Playing
Our high-ranking officials have almost all become actors and actresses; wherever they go TV cameras follow them, speaking endless praise about them. What exactly have they done? Only Heaven knows. This style has spread so widely that even the highest-ranking leaders cannot escape it. For example, the media reported that Premier Wen, concerned about the mistreatment of two elderly people who were forced to relocate, directed his subordinates to investigate and correct the situation. But the two people continue today to endure unfair treatment and their problems have not been resolved. This was not a game played intentionally by Premier Wen, but a mistake made by the entire government and society. Imagine that, the Premier of a country has to personally make sure two people receive replacement accommodation—can this country make any progress?
What's lacking in our government? It lacks people's support, people's supervision, and society's counter-balancing.
What's lacking in our society? It lacks human rights and a civil society's rights consciousness.
It is because of these shortcomings that the slave labor incident in Shanxi could happen. Based on what people generally think, there are many more problems like that one and some are probably even more serious.
Because of the inadequacies in our government and society, every corner of China is filled with dirt and filth, unfairness and sheer nonsense emerge right before people's eyes, and disasters happen again and again.
Similarly, the gangsterdom is very powerful because ordinary people have no power. There is no voting in China, so in political infighting, officials rely on the gangsterdom to assist them; the government is illegitimate so to implement laws, it depends on organized crime for help. This way, the criminal underworld gains a social base and receives protection from officials while being used by those same officials. The two sides collude to suppress the common people.
At present, rights movements are like wars mushrooming in Chinese society, all because of these deficiencies in the government and the society.
Until today, the Chinese Communist Party has ruled China for nearly 60 years. No matter how big of an achievement it takes credit for, how correct it proclaims itself to be, how it covers up people's mouths, how it sings praise for itself using its propaganda machine, or how many beautiful promises it has made to the Chinese people—conflicts in Chinese society have become ever more wide-spread and ever more intense.
China is not peaceful, nor harmonious!
Strategies: In order to solve China's many economic and social problems, we have to reform the political system—it must be done. Through reform, people's wills can be expressed, and through voting they can elect a government that is supported by the majority and accepted by society, a government that is legitimate, that is able to act, and that is responsible to the people. Through reform, we can have a healthy and vibrant society.
Political Reform Is Inevitable
Dear Chairman Hu and Premier Wen,
The prevailing injustice in contemporary China has given rise to increasing levels of social conflict; Chairman Hu's ideal of China as a 'harmonious society' is far from being realized. You must have received propositions from numerous people before the Chinese Communist Party's 17th National Congress, and you must have noticed that these propositions—those that were not just empty flattery—have reflected an unprecedentedly unanimous realization that China is facing huge crises. The crises lie in the stock market bubble, soaring commodity prices, endemic corruption, surging costs of housing, huge wastage of resources, pollution, social stratification, frequent mine disasters, loss of state-controlled land, rampant criminal gangs, a raging spread of HIV caused by prostitution and blood selling, the brick kiln slave labor scandals, and many other issues. It is commonly agreed that, in the face of these numerous social plagues, China needs immediate and resolute reform. But when it comes to practically implementing change, opinions vary.
Examining contemporary society run by the Communist Party, did those in the high levels of government and state-owned enterprise become leaders because they were recognised by the people for their achievements? No! If we do some research, we find that at least 70 per cent of the top leaders of government and state-run enterprise climbed to their current positions through either nepotism, flattery, false achievements, a trade in official posts, or bribery. It is these morally corrupt officials that often lecture people with: 'We are the pioneers of China's working class, so you must uphold our leadership!' They also often preach about the legitimacy their authority: 'Because we adhere to Marxism and hold high the banner of Mao Zedong Thought, we represent...' and so on.
Such speeches, if featured on a talk-show, would have made the audience walk out. But it is happening in China every day.
There is no exaggeration here. I'd love to encourage the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, or the Central Organization Department, or any non-government organization, to do a research into these matters. If the authorities neither investigate nor admit the reality, it will be to our country's tragedy.
Solution: Political Reform is Inevitable!
(1) To realize social justice and build up a harmonious environment to promote reform in China, it is necessary to establish a mechanism of dialogue that involves all social classes. It is for achieving such a mechanism that many people have sacrificed so much, among whom are the young students who spoke out in 1989 during the pro-democracy movement.
The youth of 1989 are now in their 40s, and are the backbone of our country. Back in 1989, over 2 million people gathered in Tiananmen Square, at least 20 million participated in demonstrations all over the country, and over 100 million supported the movement in one way or another. So China cannot just avoid the 1989 movement and subsequent massacre. The authorities must redress this.
As Deng Xiaoping and other decision makers of that period of time have now passed away, and given that the current officials were at that time just carrying out orders from above, I suggest that the authorities exempt these officials from legal responsibilities and move to a smooth redress of the entire affair.
(2) Freedom of belief is a globally recognized human right, and is protected by U.N.'s Universal Declaration of Human Rights, as well as by China's Constitution. After the 1989 pro-democracy movement, Deng Xiaoping's successor regarded all non-communist organizations as 'causes of instability', and was determined to 'nip them in the bud' so as to reinforce the dictatorship of the Communist Party. With such a prejudice he targeted Falun Gong practitioners, a group of law-abiding citizens, and by cracking down on them tried to scare others into absolute obedience. Falun Gong practitioners' efforts to 'reason and explain' were received as intolerable disrespect and offense, and they have been cruelly persecuted since then. This is not only a crackdown on Falun Gong; it is a suppression of the entire country. China should stop the persecution of Falun Gong and provide state compensation for the victims.
The Most Urgent Task is to Stop the Persecution of Falun Gong!
I suggest the Communist Party send representatives to talk to Falun Gong, and prosecute those who ordered the persecution for criminal responsibilities. By raising these suggestions, I urge the authorities to stop the persecution of Falun Gong immediately, and to accelerate China's pace of democratization.
(3) Release all prisoners of conscience, welcome home the overseas democracy activists, and help build a democratic China.
No doubt the process of democratization in China will not be all smooth and easy, which is why we'll need power and wisdom from as many places as possible. Many Chinese democracy activists living overseas are social and intellectual elites who have sacrificed a lot for China's democratization. They are precious for China's democratic future. These people will bring back good experience about how to build a democratic society from abroad; this will help China pave a smoother way to democracy. With the coming of democracy, the 56 different ethnicities in China will form a more solid union—just like the 50 American states, all wanting to be part of the U.S. In the U.S. it is people's will that decides the country's future. When democracy is one day realized in China, people will look back at today's China with pity. They will remember how desperately today's Chinese people tried to get out of their homeland, how they would rather be stowaways, prostitutes and slaves than stay in China, and how even the privileged, high officials would hastily move their money to foreign countries. At that time, Chinese will mourn for this sad and dark age when China had no democracy, and will thank God that the nightmare has finally ended.
(4) Abide by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Ensure Freedom of Speech
The Chinese Communist Party top leaders save their money in the U.S., which seems to suggest that they do trust this 'capitalist' country, which has been strongly condemned for 'hegemonism' and its social system.
Certainly, there are many reasons to justify saving money in the U.S., such as 'keeping the U.S. quiet', 'reducing America's attacks on China's (or rather, the Chinese Communist Party's) human rights abuses', or 'using the power of the U.S. against Taiwan', and so on.
Then why has the Chinese communist regime never stopped hiring writers and cyber-agents to attack the U.S., kindling hatred among Chinese people, and especially the less experienced, young people?
The answer is loud and clear: to shield Chinese peoples' minds from the democratic ideals that characterize American culture, ideals that could end the regime's dictatorship.
Thus, returning the people freedom of speech should be the first step in China's political reform. Chinese people deserve to enjoy such freedom, and to be able to understand what people in other parts of the world are thinking and saying. Only then can our reform be successful.
Chairman Hu and Primer Wen, I'd venture to ask you this question: with your education, rationality, and knowledge, with your conscience, and responsibility to our country and our people, can you justify and support a regime that maintains its rule by silencing media, blockading the Internet and other media of communication, and by suppressing and manipulating its own people? Can you really say such a regime is legal, strong, or rational? Don't you think that changes must be made?
Thus, I appeal to the authorities to give the people their rightful freedom of speech, and allow people to say what they want to say without fearing persecution. Let them vote!
I also appeal for the realization of a democratic constitution in China. Democracy is actually inevitable, and those who help to realize it will be China's heroes—those who try to prevent it will be sinners.
It is only through the realization of democracy that China can reach social harmony and survive the crises Chinese society is now confronted with, the imminent dangers that may ruin our whole nation.
On China's Political Reform
Chairman Hu and Premier Wen, heaven has bestowed on you an opportunity to create a legacy and to do a great service to the people of China. If you use this opportunity and set things right, then no doubt you will go down in history as the two greatest politicians in modern China next only to Mr. Sun Yat-sen. You will win the support and respect of all Chinese people.
The reform could occur in several possible ways.
A. You Two Lead the Reform
(1) The time is ripe now
Today, changes are being demanded by both ordinary citizens and Party cadres. What has been expressed is only a very small part of what people want, as the voices of the majority are still muffled. Everyone, including high officials within the Party, has realized that change is inevitable, but many people keep watching and waiting till you are forced to make changes.
At a time like this, a slight hint from you will bring about an immediate general "awakening." No force in the Party would dare to object to your efforts towards democracy—those who object would be removed by the people.
As a matter of fact, right now, constitutional reform will be supported by all of society in China, including high-ranking officials and so called "vested interest groups." Disagreement may come from a few specially privileged groups and the most unwise and stubborn people. A constitutional system is one with a sound legal system that better ensures the safety of people and their property—both immediately and in the long term. It especially provides a sense of safety for high-ranking cadres of the Party. (2) The nationalization of the army
Before the 17th National Congress, in the fight with your political opponents to defend your power, you emphasized, "The Party commands the gun." But from now on, you should shift the emphasis to the nationalization of the army! This idea has already taken root in the People's Liberation Army. By nationalizing the army, you will hold the treasure of the country tightly in your hands. No one would dare to stage a coup during the reform. Everyone understands that such a coup will be more easily defeated than the Soviet August Coup against Mikhail Gorbachev.
B. Someone Else Leads the Reform
(1) China's "Yeltsin" may be someone outside the central government
In China, a reformer like Yeltsin could be in any province, even in some remote province. The possibility of China having such a figure is much higher than for Russia to have Yeltsin, because the current situation is perfect for such a person to step up to the plate.
Here's a possible scenario. A top or secondary leader of a province shows sympathy or offers support to the right-defending activities of any ill-treated group, such as the victims of forced evictions, the unemployed, or migrant workers. The media then publish positive reports about person, which is obviously not the usual policy of the Party. This cadre's bosses silently observe the situation, and do nothing except report developments to the central government.
They may warn the cadre, or give him hints to stop, but it is up to the central government to order criticism and punishment for this cadre, which may include firing him or transferring him to another place.
When people hear about this, they will gather in front of the provincial government gates and protest against such decisions. They could hold demonstrations, and may even break into the government. At this point, "Yeltsin" will walk into the crowd and openly support the demonstrators. News about such an occurrence will rapidly spread throughout China.
Then, the central government will hold emergency meetings to decide what it will do. The options are:
- a) Remove "Yeltsin" from his post or transfer him to another post. However, people will keep protesting.
- b) Arrest him. Then larger scale protests will occur, which could develop into riots.
- c) Order "Yeltsin" to go to Beijing and report to the central government.
- d) The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection will then collect financial and personal information about this person, and find or make up enough information to defame him in order to devitalize his charisma among the people.
Finally, the central government decides to carry out options C and D simultaneously.
Now it's time for "Yeltsin" to bid farewell to the crowd. On a square he gives a speech about the need for democracy. People ask him, "What if you are arrested and sentenced to prison after you go to Beijing? You may even be killed." He answers passionately, "It is no use killing me, because there're so many people like me in China ready to take my place. If they kill me, their evil nature will be exposed to the world."
In deafening applause and cheers, his voice and image are broadcast to every corner of the world.
It is not important how the central government "talks" to him in Beijing, because rights-defending and pro-democracy movements are blooming all over the country. Thousands of letters supporting "Yeltsin" flood into Beijing each day. He is now the focus of the world.
Within a few months, China has its own Yeltsin.
(2) China's Yeltsin may also be someone in the central government
With determination and experience, anyone among current vice chairpersons of the National People's Congress or the National Committee could easily become China's Yeltsin in the present climate.
But what if the Party cadres are too cowardly to play the role of Yeltsin?
(3) The people will create their own Yeltsin
Given China's current status, this will definitely happen.
There are millions of human rights and democracy activists in China, and tens of millions of religious people. If we count the family members of these people, the number is at least 100 million. Among these people there are over 10,000 organizations, though some are small and loosely organized. Now, some of these organizations and individuals are defending their rights with their own lives; but soon they will find a way to voice their will in a more concise, united, legal, rational, and smoother way. What really matters is that they will voice themselves. As long as a few of these organizations can persevere in what they do, a new age will soon come.
For example, they can send short text messages to their friends and relatives to tell them how to access overseas Chinese websites using dongtaiwang.com and Freegate software or other tools to break through the Internet blockade. The recipients of such messages will forward the information to more people, and form a message relay.
The relay will spread all over China at an amazing speed. It is technically impossible to stop them. Besides, sharing information is not breaking any law.
To avoid violent conflict with authorities and to ensure the continuous development of democratic forces, people should use peaceful but unyielding ways to express their will. For instance, at every meeting or gathering held by the authorities, one person may start to applaud, and the whole audience, following him, may applaud rhythmically to express "Democracy! Freedom! Vote! Constitution!"
In such a circumstance, if the meeting leaders publicly agree with the audience, the audience will applaud warmly and cheer, and let the world know about their leader's magnificence. Otherwise, the meeting leaders will find themselves standing alone against the majority, embarrassed by the unstoppable rhythmic applause.
If such a scene occurs in one or two provincial Standing Committee conferences or People's Congresses, the authorities will have to reconsider their own situations and people's will when they prepare for national congresses.
China's democratic reform must be peaceful, and must be realized through enhancing people's general awareness of democracy. Any violence will be the enemy of democracy and the people.
C. The Irreversible Trend of History
I heard that Chairman Hu Jintao favors the idiom "standing high and looking far." I believe Chairman Hu will be able to keep things under control and lead China through this period.
This is a great time that could create a great figure. This is a time when Chinese people yearn for a great leader. Chairman Hu and Premier Wen, if either of you stands out and leads the constitutional reform, you will become the greatest reformer after Sun Yat-sen, and will gain the support of all of China's people. If you do this together, it will be the biggest blessing for China and for the Chinese Communist Party. The world will cheer for you and for China. If that happens, the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games will start a great new age for our great nation, like the 1988 Seoul Olympic Games did in South Korea. By then, the Olympic flag will shine brighter than ever.
Wang Zhaojun
October 22, 2007
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