WASHINGTON, D.C.—With less than a month to go before the first votes are cast in 2008 primaries, young prospective voters are displaying more interest and are politically engaged at higher levels than in past elections. The Democrat Party is poised to reap the most benefit from the youth preferences during this election cycle and likely into the future.
Three out five persons, ages 18 to 24, says that they are following national political news closely, and 35% identify themselves as "politically engaged or active," according to a new national poll by the Institute of Politics of Harvard University.
This finding of high engagement in the political process by today's youth is in sharp contrast to past Institute of Politics (IOP) surveys. In the first IOP survey in 2000, turnout was low relative to other age groups, and young Americans had a major disconnect with the political process, according to an IOP report.
By 2004, however, voter turnout among 18 to 24 year-olds in the United States increased from 36% in the 2000 presidential election to 47% in the 2004 election, and 2008 promises to be still higher. 61% say in this latest poll that they will definitely vote in the 2008 general election.
"…in 2004, we saw the highest youth turnout in 32 years since young people first got the right to vote," said IOP Polling Director John Della Volpe.
The power of the youth vote could be seen in the 2006 mid-term election when the Democrats took control of both houses of Congress for the first time in 12 years. In Virginia, Jim Webb's victory over Republican incumbent Senator George Allen by only 9,329 votes can be attributed to increased turnout and registration at the University of Virginia, according to the analysis of John F. Kennedy School Professor David C. King cited in an IOP report.
Compared to the rest of the adult population, young people are more attracted to the Democrat party. In the 2004 presidential election, young people were the only age group to vote a majority for John Kerry. A CNN exit poll was cited by IOP Polling Director Volpe that found in the 2004 election, more votes were cast by people less than 30 years old than over the age 65. These election results show the political impact young people can have today.
On December 5th, the Brookings's Opportunity 08 Project collaborated with the Institute of Politics (IOP) to release the results of the youth survey at the Brookings Institution, where a panel of those connected with the survey commented and answered questions.
Obama Continues to Lead Clinton in Today's Youth Preference
The IOP online sample consisted of 2,526 U.S. citizens 18-24 years old, who were reached between October 28 and November 9. Some 35% consider themselves Democrats, 25% Republican and 40% are Independent. 60% say they follow news about the national politics either very or somewhat closely. More than one-third (35%) regard themselves as politically engaged or active, according to the IOP summary report. 61% say they will definitely be voting in the general election, 41% in a presidential primary or caucus.
U.S. Senator Barack Obama has the lead over U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton for president in 2008 among the young Democrats, with 38% versus 33%. (Former Senator John Edwards has 7% of the youth preference.) Obama's lead is enhanced on the college campuses, while Clinton holds a narrow lead among non-college youth. By contrast, national polls taken about the same time as the IOP poll have Senator Clinton leading Senator Obama substantially. Note that these results and percentages on the youth preference refer to the national pattern and not to Iowa or New Hampshire, in particular.
For the young Republicans, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads at 26%, the other candidates: U.S. Senator John McCain (15%) and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (6%). All three candidates, however, have lost ground since the IOP March survey. Hence, the undecided voters on the Republican side are increasing. U.S. Representative Ron Paul has picked up some support too since the March IOP survey.
Of the youth who support a particular Democratic or Republican candidate, 35% say they would be somewhat or very likely to volunteer if asked by a campaign they supported.
IOP and Opportunity 08
The IOP surveys differ from typical national surveys in that its mission seeks to promote the participation and engagement of youth in the political process. The Director of IOP, former Congressman James A. Leach, stated at the news briefing that he would like to see more youth participate in the election primary, which he regards as the most serious weakness of our political process. As an incentive for greater youth turnout, he announced a new website that the IOP is starting: novotenovoice.com.
The IOP works with undergraduates at Harvard who were involved in the process of creating the questions, analyzing the results, with the intent of demonstrating to the public, especially the politicians, the importance of young people in the political process. The students' work was done in consultation with IOP Polling Director Volpe.
"The [overall] IOP mission is to inspire young people into a life of public service and politics and to engage them in the political process. The IOP works to show young people that politics really does matter and is relevant to their lives…," said Kenneth Duberstein.
Duberstein is a member of the senior advisory board of IOP while also Co-chairman of Opportunity 08 Project at Brookings Institution. The latter has complimentary educational aims to the IOP.
The Opportunity 08 is a project of the Brookings Institution in partnership with ABC News. According to the project's statements, the public wants more than sound-bites from the presidential candidates. To broaden the discussion on important issues, such as tax policy, energy security, reducing the deficit, and the Iraq war, discussions, public forums and information will appear on the ABC News website and on www.opportunity08.org
The Opportunity 08 Project has as its aim to replace the highly partisan tone in political discourse with "thoughtful discussions among political candidates and the public during this presidential campaign," says Kenneth Duberstein.
The Institute of Politics (IOP) is located at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard U. As a memorial to President Kennedy, the IOP seeks to "stimulate and nurture" the interests of undergraduate students in public service.
Can Online Surveys Be Trusted?
This survey sponsored by the Institute of Politics (IOP) was conducted online by Harris Interactive. The Internet was used because somewhere between a third and one half of young people do not have access to a tradition landline phone, said IOP Polling Director John Volpe, who is an expert in youth surveying.
The data were weighted proportionately to represent the 18-24 year old population of the United States on such attributes as gender, race/ethnicity, education, household income and region.
As an online survey, it will miss the portion of the youth who do not use computers, go online, or for whatever reason, refuse to participate when contacted. The potential bias here doesn't appear to bother Harris Interactive whose policy is not to compute the sampling error or the margins of error for the percentages reported, for example, ±3% as customarily done in national surveys.
Probably the greatest value in a survey, lies in finding the substantial response changes to the same questions asked at two time periods. When the same methodology, produces different outcomes at two different time periods, one can trust that the change itself is real, for example, the increase in voter turnout by young people reported by two IOP surveys—one in 2000 and the other in 2004.
The fact that beginning two years ago, the IOP surveys needed to go online points to a change for the political candidates to heed when reaching out to their supporters.
"Young Americans cannot be entirely accessed or engaged through the traditional tactics of phone banks, leaflets, television advertisements, and newspaper editorials," says Cali Carlin, from CBS News in New York. Writing on "The Young Vote" for Opportunity 08, Carlin says, "Social networking, text messaging, internet postings, and other 'new media' must be deployed to bring young Americans to the political table."
A transcript of the December 5th news conference at Brookings can be read at:
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2007/1205_youth/20071205youth.pdf
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