BAGHDAD—Iraq's security forces are improving but will not be ready to take control of as many provinces by the end of the year as the U.S. military had hoped, a top U.S. general said.
Iraq has experienced a rare lull in violence in the past few months, allowing U.S. forces to plan and begin a gradual drawdown of troops that will see 20,000 leave Iraq by July 2008.
The speed of withdrawals has been tied to improvements in Iraq's security forces, which Lieutenant-General James Dubik, the U.S. general in charge of training the nation's soldiers, described as good but mixed.
His predecessor, Lieutenant-General Martin Dempsey, had said in June that Iraqi forces should be ready to be in control of 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces by the end of the year.
"I don't think we'll make that," Dubik told Reuters in an interview late Sunday.
"We're not on a timeline at all. The conditions in each province will dictate when we do that."
Ahead of the end of the U.N. Security Council's mandate for the multinational force in Iraq, the White House said Monday it had agreed with the Iraqi government to start formal talks next year on the future relationship between the two.
The mandate is expected to be renewed for 2008, after which bilateral agreements will decide the U.S.-Iraq relationship, including the size and shape of the U.S. troop presence.
President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki agreed to an agenda that lays out a "common sheet of music with which to begin the negotiations," said Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, White House deputy national security adviser.
"The basic message here should be clear, Iraq is increasingly able to stand on its own, that's very good news, but it won't have to stand alone," he said.
Provinces Handed Back
Eight provinces have so far been handed back to Iraqi security forces, the last in Kerbala last month. The southern oil-producing hub of Basra is expected to be the next province to return to Iraqi control next month.
Dubik said Iraqi commanders had been told where the drawdowns would happen and was confident they had taken steps to fill the looming gaps.
He said Iraq's 490,000-strong security forces—160,000 soldiers and about 330,000 police—had shown great improvements in the past six months but lack of leadership, sectarian infiltration and logistics remained key problems.
After an almost year-long security crackdown, attacks across Iraq have fallen by 55 percent since the deployment of 30,000 extra troops became fully operational in mid-June.
The growing use of U.S.-backed neighbourhood police units, organized by mainly Sunni Arab tribal sheikhs, have also been credited for the declining violence. Iraqi civilian and U.S. military deaths both fell sharply in the past two months.
Despite the fall in violence, Shi'ite militias in volatile parts of Baghdad continue to receive support from Iran, a U.S. commander said Monday.
Army Col. Don Farris, commander of U.S. troops in the Sadr City and Adamiya areas of Baghdad, said the number of attacks in his sector had dropped 75 percent since May. But there has been no decline in the operations of Shi'ite extremist groups or the support they receive from Iran in weapons, funding or training, he said.
Crimes Committed
The crackdown was designed to buy time for Iraq's political leaders to push through key legislation aimed at reconciling majority Shi'ites and minority Sunni Arabs who were dominant until the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 toppled Saddam Hussein.
Progress on the "benchmark" laws has been slow. On Sunday, a bill that would ease curbs on former members of Saddam's Baath party joining the military and civil service was read to parliament but a row quickly erupted and debate was postponed.
It was the first time parliament had taken up any of the major bills, which also include a key oil law that will determine how revenue from Iraq's vast oil reserves will be distributed, constitutional reform and provincial elections.
Objections from a Shi'ite faction and procedural arguments stopped the draft law on former Baathists from being read out in full, underscoring the deep divisions that remain in Iraq despite pressure from Washington to pass the laws.
About 77,000 Iraqis have signed up to the predominantly neighbourhood police units.
The U.S. military has been paying their wages but U.S. Brigadier-General Edward Cardon said the Iraqi government, at first ambivalent toward the initiative, wanted to pay the "concerned local citizens" groups.
A government spokesman said he was not immediately aware of any Iraqi plan to pay the wages. Such a move would signal growing support from the Shi'ite-led government. Some Shi'ites fear the groups will become de facto Sunni Arab militias.
Feeds