Grounds for a new security paradigm have emerged from an international conference tackling the problem of nuclear terrorism.
At the International Conference on Illicit Nuclear Trafficking, held in Edinburgh in the UK last week, experts from all over the world were looking at ways to prevent the disturbing trend in trafficking nuclear materials for the purposes of terrorism.
A spokesman for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Peter Rickman, spoke to The Epoch Times from Vienna. He described how, since 1993, the IAEA Illicit Trafficking Database has recorded 1266 incidents involving smuggling, theft and attempted illegal sales of nuclear material.
This represents a real threat to the efforts of the Non-Proliferation Treaty signatories. Three instances in 1993 and 1994 involved theft of significant quantities of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) which was due to be sold on the black market.
Despite these concerns Australia is exporting uranium to countries that are in breach of their NPT obligations, namely China and Russia. As the home of the largest proven reserves of uranium in the world, Australia bears a unique responsibility to ensure that its uranium does not fuel proliferation.
Malcolm Cole, Media Adviser at the Office of the Hon Alexander Downer MP, told The Epoch Times that the "Coalition Government's position on uranium exports… will not change if the Government is returned on November 24." Mr Downer's spokesman insisted that, during its tenure, the Coalition government has only supported the export of uranium for "peaceful, non-military purposes to countries with strict non-proliferation safeguards", however, when interviewed by The Epoch Times, Jim Green of Friends of the Earth in Melbourne, described the scrutiny of Chinese nuclear energy programs by IAEA officials and other countries as "pathetic".
China has also been implicated in providing centrifuge enrichment technology to Pakistan's nuclear weapons program and sold a small amount of natural uranium to Iran in 1991.
However, it should be remembered that uranium itself is not difficult to obtain. As the Australian Uranium Association pointed out in a briefing paper in October: "Perspective is relevant: As little as five tonnes of natural uranium is required to produce a nuclear weapon. Uranium is ubiquitous, and if cost is no object it could be recovered in such quantities from most granites, or from sea water".
Pakistan itself obtains its weapons grade uranium from indigenous mines although the lack of safeguards on its military reactors raises questions about where it sources uranium and equipment.
There are now around 27 000 nuclear warheads in the world – that's enough to destroy every major city in it eight times over. There are over 1800 tons of plutonium and HEU in civilian stocks capable of making hundreds more nuclear war heads.
The Nuclear Weapons States identified under the 1967 Non-Proliferation Treaty consist of the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, China and France, who also comprise the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.
Although the Non-Proliferation Treaty entered into force nearly 37 years ago and despite undertaking to act in good faith towards global nuclear weapons disarmament, proliferation continues amongst the "Big Five". In addition to this, four countries have unofficially joined the nuclear club since the NPT was signed; Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea.
The US and Russia have agreed to disarm a portion of their nuclear arsenals and dilute the HEU for energy production, offsetting around 10,600 tonnes of mined uranium.
However, disarmament between the Cold War blocs means little when the USA and Russia intend to retain around 1,700 warheads each. When launched, each missile is capable of killing over 100,000 people, on any continent.
Meanwhile, the US is renewing its nuclear strike force and embarking upon an ambitious missile defence system with the practical and political help of Australia.
China is also increasing its stock of warheads and President Putin is putting the Russian nuclear arsenal on a state of readiness to counter President Bush's plans for missile systems in Eastern Europe.
It is against this backdrop that countries such as North Korea and Iran are drawing international condemnation over their nuclear programs.
The Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Dr Mohamed Elbaradei, agrees that tackling proliferation requires the co-operation of all countries, including the "Big 5". In a recent address at the University of Florence, he condemned the one-sided nature of the proliferation debate:
"Strategic reliance on these weapons by these countries and their allies undoubtedly motivates others to emulate them. And of course, plans to replenish and modernize these weapons creates a pervasive sense of cynicism among many non-nuclear-weapon States — who perceive a "do as I say, not as I do" attitude".
Earlier in the year, Dr Elbaradei spoke in Luxembourg and attacked the Security Council members for dealing with proliferation in a haphazard way "too often with political overtones", and for "extending and modernizing their nuclear weapon arsenals well into the 21st century" despite undertaking to act in good faith towards nuclear disarmament.
The concept of nuclear terrorism is also undermining the case for nuclear weapons as deterrents.
Governments cannot deter terrorists with nuclear arsenals because they do not represent a legitimate target for nuclear retaliation. Terrorists rarely receive the direct support of a foreign government and are often citizens of the country they attack eg. the Oklahoma bomber, Timothy McVeigh, and the London bombers of 2006. With this dilemma in mind, nuclear weapons prove to be far too blunt an instrument for dealing with small numbers of non-state actors.
The post-cold war era nuclear issue is no longer about providing deterrence, but preventing proliferation.
Possessing a nuclear arsenal does not discourage other governments, or terrorist organizations, from acquiring their own nuclear weaponry.
Proliferation is now an imposing issue, for experts and governments alike. Responsibility and good faith need to be exercised by those countries which hold the majority of the nuclear threat in their hands.
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