As the 17th Communist Party Congress draws near, the power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is reaching its zenith. After Chinese vice-president Zeng Qinghong urged Hu Jintao to cede his presidency, Hu and his think-tank punched back with a propaganda campaign marked by a commentary titled "Democracy is Not a Bad Thing." The recent succession of military aircraft wrecks can also be attributed to the political ructions in the CCP.
Mr. Zhang Weiguo, chief editor of Trend Magazine, recently said in an interview with The Epoch Times that many recent, seemingly unrelated incidents are in fact linked to each other in a complicated way. Zhang compared the situation in China to a chess game, and said that if you observe closely and put together the scattered pieces of information, you'd find how these events are interlinked and what is behind them. In its last two issues, Trend Magazine revealed that a warship carrying Hu Jintao was attacked while he was watching the North China Sea Fleet on maneuvers. Such a serious incident seems to portend an imminent coup.
Now that the 17th Communist Party Congress is around the corner, the shuffling of people and shifting of power within the military are already following various agendas. But stabilizing the military, the key to the survival of the communist regime, will be one of Hu Jintao's major headaches in 2007, because the potential turmoil will come not only from power struggles among the upper ranks, but also from the terrible overall situation of the Chinese military.
The Power Struggle Heats Up
An article in the latest issue of Trend Magazine pointed out that although the Beijing faction has occupied the leading positions in many important agencies, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao still can not effectively enforce their reign, and they are still stuck in a war with the Shanghai Gang 1 and other local political forces. Hu and Wen have gone to great lengths to garner support, the article said, but victory is still far away. Zeng Qinghong, Hu and Wen's major adversary, has been watching and encouraging the fight and waiting for his chance to strike.
Hu is the successor selected by Deng Xiaoping, but now without the support of Deng and other political patriarchs, Hu cannot manage the situation alone. What's worse, Hu's reluctance to carry out political reforms urged by his opponents has elicited even more questions over the legitimacy of his claim to power. On the one hand, Hu and Wen have tried every means to lasso the so-called princeling party (a group composed of children and relatives of the ruling elite,) the military and the power-brokers.
On the other hand, they have played the democracy card to gain the people's support. But their adversaries are also taking steps. They retorted that democracy should begin with Hu himself, urging Hu to cede his presidency, and that the secretary-general of the CCP be elected by the 18th Communist Party Congress.
Zhang Weiguo pointed out that China is currently in a period of uncertainty. Hu and Wen's regime has no idea where China is headed. Zhang opined that China is actually lost, rather than "rising", as the Chinese communist regime boasts).
Veterans Have Led Many Massive Uprisings
According to the Trend Magazine article, the stability of the military is the biggest uncertainty for China, especially as social conflicts are intensifying and the gap between rich and poor is widening. The number of massive popular uprisings is soaring, in which military veterans' efforts to protect their rights have played an important role. Such uprisings have directly impacted the reign of the CCP.
In April 2005 and May 2006, two massive and organized veterans groups staged demonstrations in Beijing appealing to the General Political Department of the People's Liberation Army. According to a document issued by the Demobilized Army Cadre Emplacement Office of the Central Military Commission, 70 to 80 percent of China's large-scale demonstrations were led by demobilized servicemen.
Last New Year, the Vice Chairman of Central Military Commission, Guo Boxong, said in a lecture, "The demobilized servicemen's appealing to Beijing is more and more serious these days, and is happening in almost every place across the country. In Hainan Province and Hunan Province, the demonstrations almost developed into revolts. These massive protests for rights were all led by military veterans. Such protests are far more serious than those led by common people. The central committee has had to spend a fortune to settle them."
In October 2005, the CCP Central Office and the Central Military Commission issued a document about the "illegal" activities of the human rights protection organizations led by demobilized servicemen in China. The document revealed that such organizations have formed a network across the country. The total number of such organizations was as high as 104 in 2006.
Trend Magazine reports that although all the rights protection petitions of demobilized servicemen have so far been suppressed, their actions have won wide support and sympathy among active military, because 94 percent of current military servicemen will leave the army be in the same situation. Most veterans who are struggling to survive feel cheated by the CCP. The veterans' uproars have shaken the army. Among the veterans are many capable figures, and these people will surely form a force that will shape China's future.
Veteran Military Leaders Call for the Arrest of Jiang Zemin
The article said Jiang Zemin and his Shanghai Gang are unpopular among senior statesmen.
On September 24, 2006, Hu Jintao arrested Chen Liangyu, an important Shanghai Gang member. On October 13, in the farewell ceremony held for the remains of Lieutenant General Liao Hansheng, former Deputy Defense Minister of China, a witness said that a really interesting scene occurred after Hu entered a guest room, where many senior military leaders including twenty 90-year-old senior officers were assembled.
Saying his hellos, Hu shook hands with these people. One of the generals said, "President Hu, you arrested Chen Liangyu, good job!" Others responded, "Yes, good job!" Some yelled, "You'd better arrest his boss too! Arrest the Jiang Gang and the Shanghai Gang! Arrest Jiang Zemin! You must not be soft on them; if they deserve to die, kill them!"
One of them stood up and said to Hu, "Be brave enough to do your job. Our sons are army commanders and fleet commanders, and also we support you."
The article said that Hu's first task in 2007 will be to stabilize the military. Hu understands that an anti-corruption campaign can win the support of senior statesmen. But for their sons, who are now serving in the military, things may be different. They need not only money but also power. They will not allow any anti-corruption campaign that could cause the collapse of the CCP.
Hu Cannot Fight Zeng Within the Current System
In Zhang's view, Zeng Qinghong, who is the leader of "princelings" and the most powerful member of the Shanghai Gang, has his own personal network in the military. His political power is close to Hu's and sometimes even stronger. Zeng Qinghong has weaknesses though, mainly in his age. In addition, many party members dislike him and the public is not ready to accept him.
The princelings think the CCP is their source of money, property and business. They think Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao are from the lower classes and (should be) working for them. At most, they think Hu and Wen are managers of their own business. If Hu makes a wrong move, his loyalty to the CCP will be challenged. Thus Hu is very careful about any issue at any moment.
In the current political climate, Hu Jintao cannot beat Zeng Qinghong and the princelings. Only if he could jump out of the present context and gain some political power from civil society, would it be possible for him to confront Zeng Qinghong and the princelings. But he was cultured as a flower in the CCP's greenhouse and it's hard for him to step away from the party structures. He has to make gestures towards political reform but he can't take any real action, so he just plays an insignificant role for the princelings.
According to the Trend Magazine article, the princelings are now conceited and arrogant, as each of them is vested stakeholder. Those lieutenant generals and major generals of the princelings, who grew up together, dare to complain and scold anyone. When they drink together, some say, "We have enough people at this table to launch a coup d'etat."
Don't Fantasize About the CCP
Zhang Weiguo thinks the current social system in mainland China is a freak of history, and a mixture of totalitarian socialism and totalitarian capitalism. The mass of the common people and far-sighted intellectuals inside the Party are its opponents, so the core of the Party, which still sticks to this evil path, is facing pressure from every direction.
Zhang pointed out that the CCP has launched campaigns including the anti-spiritual-pollution campaign, the anti-freedom campaign, the Tiananmen Square Massacre and the persecution of Falun Gong. Even after Hu Jintao, the head of the fourth generation leaders, took power, such civil movements as human rights defense activities are increasingly suppressed. In general, the totalitarian nature of the CCP has not changed and it is still a political machine taking anti-right wing measures.
Sadder still, Chinese intellectuals, whose courage was suppressed in 1950, have not recovered yet. Instead, they are now sharing the same interests with those vested stakeholders and have now too become corrupt along with the CCP's political systems.
Note: [1] The Shanghai Gang is a collective label for the officials and politburo members headed by Jiang Zemin, which dominated China's political power scene for more than a decade until Jiang began to fade from active political life in late 2002.
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