It's been on the cards for months but now, according to the US, it's official – Australia is in the grip of an El Nino.
It's unlikely there'll be relief until well into next year, said Dr David Jones, head of climate analysis for the National Climate Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne.
And, unlike earlier El Ninos, an expert says the effects of this one could be worse, because water stocks already are low.
The El Nino phenomenon involves an extreme warming of equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean, bringing drought to eastern Australia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.
Last month, the bureau predicted neutral conditions for the return of El Nino, but today the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said an El Nino had formed and will last into 2007.
"The Americans have said, `Yes, formally, we are going to call this'," Dr Jones said.
"But the bureau's position is that we are on the cusp and the chances are it's going to develop into one.
"The trick with an El Nino is that it has to reach a certain (ocean warming) strength and then it has to last for a while.
"We are more or less at the strength which is typical of an El Nino event, so the oceans are as warm as what they usually are during El Ninos."
On September 5, the Bureau of Meteorology said Australia had recorded its driest August since accurate record-keeping began in 1900.
It was also the warmest since detailed monthly temperature data came on line in 1950.
Associate Professor Stewart Franks, from Newcastle University, said a new El Nino spelled bad news for struggling farmers and for large parts of Australia that had not enjoyed good rains since the last El Nino in 2001-2003.
What was perhaps more significant was that water supplies already were so low that a new El Nino posed a threat to urban populations, Prof Franks said.
"All over eastern Australia there are many urban water supplies which are already struggling and this El Nino is possibly the worst news we could have," he said.
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