LEBANON—Day by day the cracks in a fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel, the Lebanese government and Hezbollah, are becoming more visible.
The Israelis have reported having intelligence information that Hezbollah is re-arming, hence their justification for a raid in the Bekaa Valley, which runs not seven miles in from the Syrian border.
The Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has now accused Israel of a naked violation of the ceasefire agreement.
There has been no development in the resolution-stipulated return of the two Israeli soldiers kidnapped by Hezbollah last month, an act seen as the catalyst that started the conflict.
UNIFIL, the international force meant to ensure the safe withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon and assist the Lebanese army in disarming Hezbollah and occupying the south, is not yet in place, and is predicted to be severely undermanned.
On top of all this, the political and financial influence of Iran and Syria in Lebanon is as strong as ever, with both countries guaranteeing their unreserved support for Hezbollah.
If United Nations officials think this ceasefire is going to hold for much longer, they are seriously mistaken.
Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah agreed to follow the terms of the Ceasefire because it does Hezbollah good to be seen to be co-operating with the United Nations and the demands of the international community. From agreeing to the resolution, the group has gained a limited but notable credibility in some quarters as something other than a terrorist organization, especially with their cleverly planned efforts in assisting the Lebanese people with the post-conflict recovery effort.
However, many Lebanese here believe Hezbollah is saying one thing and doing another. The suspicion is that Nasrallah's agreement to the ceasefire has allowed time for Hezbollah to reorganize and rearm after the heavy bombardment from the Israeli air strikes has left its armory seriously under strength.
The new weapons will come through Syria. With the recent Bekaa raids Israel's government has shown that they know all about it.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's agreement to the ceasefire has gained some much needed solidarity with the United Nations and the international community at large, after the aerial bombardment of Lebanese cities and towns attracted widespread global criticism.
And, the Israeli government's concession to withdraw troops from Lebanon has shown Israel to be capable of compromise and convey a desire to solve the crisis diplomatically rather than through armed conflict.
But the Israeli agreement to the ceasefire has also given Israel the opportunity to allow the United Nations, through UNIFIL deployment, to find out for itself exactly what it is dealing with in Lebanon.
This could backfire. Hezbollah may well have the capability, due to vast community support, to conceal its weaponry and only give up limited arms in order to pacify the United Nations and convince them that Hezbollah is disarming.
Should this happen, Israel will have to prove Hezbollah is not disarming. One way of doing that could be attacking suspected arms locations to ellicit a response.
The Lebanese government agreed to the ceasefire initially in order to stop the bombs landing in Lebanon. But secondarily, their decision to sign the deal was influenced by Hezbollah, as the timing was right for the organization.
The international community must start to understand the full extent of the power Hezbollah has here. Hezbollah is better armed than the government, is backed by leading Middle East powers Iran and Syria and controls enough of a significant part of the government here to sway major decisions, especially with two ministers in Prime Minister Siniora's cabinet.
But this is not the only thing the international community needs to understand about Lebanon and the Middle East.
Iran and Syria have openly demonstrated their support for Hezbollah. Both Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, have stated they believe, as Ahmadinejad said, "Israel must be wiped off the map."
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has whole-heartedly supported this statement and made clear all three leaders have the same agenda to destroy the state of Israel and have formed an alliance of ideologies.
Hezbollah may presently be the front line force fighting Israel, due to its power in Lebanon, and its strategic military location. But Israel knows its enemies also spread further east to Syria and Iran.
What will it take for the international community to realize that in the grand scheme of things in the Middle East Israel is the victim? Israel is under attack from Iran, Syria and the groups they support such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
When has Prime Minister Olmert or any other Israeli leader for that matter, said he wants Israel to wipe Iran, Lebanon, or Syria of the map? Never.
Israel is not the aggressor, nor is it the perpetrator of violence here. Israel is not fighting to obliterate Lebanon nor for its own territorial gain.
Israel is, however, fighting for its right to exist.
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