In June of 2002, a well known British magazine published a cover article "Who is Hu," showing the world's attention to this new leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Emerging from "the youngest politburo standing committee member" in 1992's 14th Congress of the CCP into today's highest CCP leader in the Party, government, and the military, Hu Jintao remains a mystery to the world. Before Hu's visit to the United States, New Tang Dynasty TV reporters in its "Insight into China" program interviewed Mr. Xin Haonian about his views on Hu's visit and Sino-U.S. relations. Here is part II of the interview.
Lin Dan: Then what has the CCP done under the concept of an inevitable war?
Xin Haonian: It first released an "anti-secession law" which I once analyzed in a speech titled, "The Principle and the Time of the Unification of China" in Chicago. I described it as a law lacking legitimacy. It is not an authentic "anti-secession law." It was actually holding the banner of nationalism and it implemented its tactics of unification abroad. It was merely a show to the West. The CCP has suggested in this "anti-secession law" that in order to solve the Taiwan issue it has to rely on force. It doesn't care how much pressure it might get from the world. Because, no matter how high the pressure gets from the outside, the one inside is much greater and, in the end, determines whether the CCP will be dead or alive. That's a really important ruling.
Narrator: In 2005, Taiwan's Pan-Blue camp launched a series of "trips" to the Mainland, which included "Trip of the Nation" by Yu Mumin, president of the New Party; "Trip to Break the Ice" by Song Chuyu, president of the People First Party, and "The Trip of Peace" held by Lian Zhan, president of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). They were welcomed as honorable guests and cheered by the audience. Walking down the red carpet, they felt they were coming home with honors.
Regarding the visits of Lian Zhan and Song Chuyu, the central committee of the CCP once released a "notification" within the party. The "notification" stated that in order to disintegrate the coalition of enemies and to obtain as many allied peace forces as possible before the war comes, the Central Committee had recently decided to invite groups of Taiwan parties to visit the Mainland, which included KMT, led by Lian Zhan and the People First Party, led by Song Chuyu. This invitation also aimed to increase the mutual relations with each Taiwan Party.
Xin Haonian: Secondly, after its release of the "anti-secession law," the CCP immediately invited KMT in Taiwan to visit the Mainland. The president of KMT in Taiwan had lost twice in the elections. The president of a local Taiwan party was treated as a nation-wide leader. What goal lay in those actions? Very simply, the core issue is coming from the concept of "a war between the U.S. and China."
If the "anti-secession law" opens the prelude of that concept, then an invitation of Lian Zhan to visit the Mainland would be one of the strategies used. Once the assumption, "there must be a war between China and U.S." is made, then the war against Taiwan may become insignificant, as the determination of the Taiwanese to guard Taiwan could break down psychologically. The CCP has taken advantage of the conflict between the two parties, has taken advantage of the separation among the clans in Taiwan, and has essentially created a vacuum through the competition between KMT and Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party. The CCP wants to recruit KMT and bring KMT closer and closer to its united front.
Eventually though, there may not be such a war with the U.S., but Taiwan is horrified. Taiwan may not become its enemy of war at all because the CCP would declare, "a war between the U.S. and China," which is a very smart tactic indeed. So, on its "notification" it states the using of two hands of revolution to welcome Lian and Song's visits. This strategy is called "to defeat your enemy without a fight."
On the other hand, it recruits KMT and is developing a pro-communist force in Taiwan. The motivation is still the war between China and the U.S. According to this assumption, the CCP could very easily resolve its Taiwan issues. Firstly, Taiwan is truly threatened. Secondly, because there is an inevitable war against the U.S., the CCP could express its desire to resolve these inner issues and end the status of separation between Taiwan and China. It could express the need to accelerate unification of China and its parties. In this way, it can enhance its ability to manipulate all powers within the nation, including that of Taiwan, to wage war against the U.S. The CCP described all of this in its publication "Using Two Revolutionary Hands to Welcome Taiwan's Dormant Independence Force".
Is this viable by either first disintegrating Taiwan or by using the banner of "The Inevitable War Against the U.S"? Yes. Lian Zhan, Song Chuyu, and Yu Muming all went to the Mainland. Senior and lower ranking KMT officials alike are running to the Mainland. They are willing to walk on the red carpet. For one thing, they can alleviate their homesickness; secondly, they think they have obtained the acknowledgement from the gigantic CCP, which can greatly amplify their own status.
Narrator: On July 14, 2005, Zhu Chenghu, a major general and dean of the Defense College at the Chinese National Defense University, told a group of journalists that if the U.S is involved in a conflict over Taiwan, China will use nuclear weapons first. The CCP is preparing for the destruction of all cities east of Xi'an. Of course, the Americans will also have to be prepared for the destruction of hundreds of their own cities at the hands of the Chinese. According to current arrangements, regions east of Xi'an City include China's Northern, Eastern, Northeastern, and Southern regions. These areas include a total of 21 provinces, with cities like Beijing and Shanghai, combining for a population of 1 billion people, which is roughly three quarters of the country's entire population.
Xin Haonian: This is the third topic and it is a real issue. From Lian and Song's visits to the "anti-secession law," the CCP knows that they are not the main targets because there is no direct war against the U.S taking place so far. So, it eventually allowed a major general to publicly threaten the U.S. The CCP is willing to sacrifice the most affluent areas of China by allowing the Americans to completely destroy it, and it can show its strong determination with the use of nuclear weapons. Does that work? Yes. This works even better because it extends beyond the scope of the Taiwan issue. It directly transforms the Taiwan issue into the war against the U.S., which would indeed be a nuclear war. It changes its often-mentioned "no first use" policy on nuclear weapons and its often-mentioned "peaceful rise". The CCP can then admit "the threats of China", and is boldly threatening the U.S.
Bin Laden is bad, but no matter how bad he is, he only bombed two buildings. He can not occupy America; he can not destroy America. But [to say] "there will be a war between the U.S. and China" means a war between two superpowers. If neither side can destroy the other, then there can be no success and victory in such a war. What to do? There's only one way—nuclear war. This will naturally lead to the conclusion that any war with the U.S. will be a nuclear war.
Regarding China and the U.S., on the surface, the nuclear arsenal of U.S. is much stronger than China's nuclear arsenal. In reality, both countries are nuclear powers. From another aspect, the U.S. is a democratic country. If it wants to carry out a nuclear war, Congress must approve it, and there will be consultation and decision-making from all fronts. It takes a long time. It is not up to one person's wish. Before the President can push the "button," there will be numerous discussions before a decision can be made. It will also depend on the number of votes. But for the communist Chinese, to go nuclear or not is just a second's thought.
So the biggest crisis in a nuclear war is who will start it first, who would go nuclear first. The Chinese communists surely dare to use nuclear weapons first. After I destroy you, you can destroy me. I am already ahead you, so I am no longer a defeated country. It is within this premise that the Chinese communists thought up this deadly move—it is under the new concept of "there will be a war between China and the U.S.", threatening the U.S. with nuclear war.
Lin Dan: So what is America's reaction?
Xin Haonian: You can see, right away the U.S. Secretary of Defense submitted the Chinese Military Strength report to the U.S. government and the President. It mentioned that the growth of the Chinese military might indeed pose a threat to America. Large and small newspapers continue to discuss the Chinese threat theory, keep reporting Zhu Chenhu's talk. His talk has been a hot topic on the Internet. It is something that not only Chinese talk about—the people in China, and people in Taiwan, they are all talking about it. Imagine the degree and range of heat it generates, it far surpasses the anti-secession law, because it is beyond the boundary of China.
Lin Dan: So do the Chinese communists want to have a duel with the U.S.?
Xin Haonian: Of course, it is fake. That is the Chinese communists. That is the yin-yang two-face of the Chinese communists. Because what would be the result of a duel with America? The result is death. Fighting Taiwan could cause death, so would it cause its death by fighting America? Can it win a war against America and the whole western world? There is no chance. No matter how you look at it—from a political standpoint, military standpoint or geo-political standpoint, from the relationship between communist China and the world, and from the most tenuous relationship between the communist Chinese and the Chinese people, it can not be the final winner. It is impossible.
Narrator: September 1, 2005, before Hu Jintao visited America, China's State Council published "the White Paper - China's Endeavors for Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-Proliferation," trying to create a favorable atmosphere for Hu's visit. The whitepaper's emphasis was that, no matter when or under what circumstances, the Chinese 'No Nukes First' policy will not change. China will not seek to be a superpower, and it will always be the staunchest force in protecting world peace.
Lin Dan: The Chinese communists just threatened America with nuclear war, now Hu wants a State visit and demands presidential treatment. How do you look at this issue? Xin Haonian: We have to soberly realize that the method Hu uses is the yin-yang two-face method. The yang part is to threaten the U.S.; yin is to come to visit America. Threat face-to-face, holding the hands under the table. And for this hand-holding, they will ask for a State visit and presidential treatment.
After the threat and achieving its pre-conceived goal, it needs to have a good relationship with America. Because it cannot really have a war, it is best to "defeat your enemy without a fight." Now it is working towards this goal. The bluff is over, it needs real diplomacy.
Everything Hu is doing today, the strategy he is using now, is the same strategy that Mao Zedong used—the strategy of the yin-yang two-face. This has been a consistent strategy of the Chinese communists. At the same time, there are historical precedents he can learn from.
See also: Hu Jintao's New Idea: An Inevitable Sino-US Battle (Part I)
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