Chinese Communist Party Chairman Hu Jintao is in the United States for another round of talks with President Bush and ranking U.S. officials, presumably regarding the future relationship between the two governments. At the same time, the number of Chinese to have publicly withdrawn from the Chinese Communist Party—in effect a vote of no confidence in Hu's administration—has topped ten million. What follows is an interview with Chinese policy and foreign relations expert, Dr. Li Tianxiao. In it, Dr. Li sheds light on the challenges President Hu will face during his visit and how they relate to the situation in China.
Li is a former Fulbright Scholar who has his PhD in political science from Columbia University. He has been the assistant director of the Chinese division of the Gallup polling agency, and has also taught political science at the Shanghai Fudan University and Research Center in the United States.
The Protests Hu Will Face
ET: It is certain that Hu will face protests from various groups during his visit, which encounters do you predict will be the most charged?
LT: He will, indeed, face with many problems. For example, the Tibet issue, the Xinjiang issue, the Taiwan issue, but by far the most pressing of all is the situation with Falun Gong. This is because of all of the oppressed groups in China, the Falun Gong practitioners are suffering the worst and most glaring human rights abuses. The crackdown started in 1999 and the resulting persecution has been going on for seven years now. The suffering endured by Chinese Falun Gong practitioners during these years has been huge.
If the United States government wants to show that it is truly concerned with international human rights and freedom of belief, it will be hard to avoid raising the Falun Gong issue with Chairman Hu.
ET: Following the recent exposure of the illegal harvesting of organs from Falun Gong detainees occurring in hospitals and detention centers throughout China, Falun Gong rights groups have called for a complete and unhampered investigation of all the CCP detention centers and labor camps. How do you think this can be best achieved?
LT: First of all, the investigation has to be far ranging. It cannot be limited to one or a set of specific localities. Too small of a focus allows for the CCP to get rid of evidence, change the appearance of facilities, and move prisoners to alternate locations, thus enabling them to avoid discovery.
There are at least 320 labor camps in China. All of these are potentially involved in the network of persecution. If you step back and look at the bigger picture, the orchestration of such a large scale and long lasting organized suppression involves the participation of thousands of people and several hundred locations. Any investigation should take the broad scope of involvement into consideration.
It is also important that the searches be conducted randomly. As I mentioned before, if the CCP regime has advanced notice of which locations are to be searched, it is a simple matter for them to manufacture a cover-up. For much the same reasons, the investigation should be conducted independent of CCP influence or connection.
It is also very important that experts on the persecution, if not Falun Gong practitioners themselves, should be included and play a central role in the investigation. If these key people are absent from the team, it is likely that any investigation would be manipulated by the CCP.
An example of such a central and qualified figure is human rights attorney and activist Gao Zisheng. He is a Christian, but he is very knowledgeable about the persecution of Falun Gong. In fact, Gao has already signed on to participate in the currently formed Coalition to Investigate the Persecution.
The people in the upper echelons of the CCP are master tacticians. They are adept at fooling international media and rights groups. The recent investigation of the detention center in Sujiatun is a good example of this. Once enough information had been exposed about Sujiatun to merit an international investigation, the CCP took three weeks, destroyed the evidence, transferred the prisoners, debriefed the hospital personnel, slapped on a fresh paint job, and invited the investigators to come have a look. They, of course, found nothing.
CCP Diplomacy Reflects Internal Politics
ET: Prior to his visit to the United States, Chairman Hu presented U.S. officials with a check for 16.2 billion dollars. What do you think is the real purpose behind such a gift?
LT: It seems obvious that the CCP is trying to bribe the U.S. officials to turn their attention away from the human rights issues in China and place the focus on potential economic opportunities.
What your readers need to understand is that all of the diplomacy that we will see during Hu's visit will directly reflect the political situation in China. Every move is intended to have a specific and calculated effect on the home front. One political analyst has quipped, "From the moment Hu arrives at the White House he will be worrying about which groups are protesting back in Beijing, whether Jiang Zemin or some other party cadre is attempting to seize power, etc." That's about the reality of it.
The first and constant priority of the CCP is managing and maintaining power over the people of China. Everything else is secondary and is put to use to further the main objective.
ET: It seems that the CCP stance toward the U.S. is constantly switching. At times the CCP accuses the United States of being the enemy, and then in the next moment it seeks the U.S.'s favor to bolster its reputation with the rest of the Western world. What do you make of this?
LT: It is indeed ambivalent. Fundamentally, the CCP considers the U.S. an important adversary. Basically, the CCP's strategy is to curry favor with Washington until it feels strong enough to engage in a military campaign against the United States.
The CCP is very two-faced. On the surface it uses olive branch, but in reality it is attempting to lure the U.S. into a fatal position. This kind of tactic is very evil.
Examining U.S. Foreign Policy with China
ET: The United States has long held the stance that economic reform in China will lead to political reform. This notion is popular with U.S. scholars and intellectuals as well. Do you think this is realistic?
LT: It is true that this notion greatly influences Washington's stance toward Beijing, but U.S. officials have neglected to factor in the huge changes that are building within the fabric of Chinese society.
The Chinese public is stepping forward to denounce the Party, withdrawing from it by the millions, and gradually taking up the banner of democracy. This behavior, on such a large scale, is unprecedented in China. This is a rising tide of change that is destined to sweep the CCP in its path.
The CCP estimated that there were 87,000 public actions of dissent or protests last year. The actual number is much higher. These are the beginnings of a nationwide movement that has gained increasing momentum.
At the same time, Nine Commentaries on the Communist Party has transformed the overall thinking of the Chinese society. The Chinese people are educating themselves as to their history of suffering under the thumb of Maoist communism. They are awakening to the possibility of a future without communist rule. U.S. policy makers should take these developments very seriously.
Withdrawals from the Party are the CCP's Biggest Crisis
ET: You mentioned a moment ago that the purpose of the CCP's diplomacy is to serve its internal affairs and is all for alleviating domestic crisis. In multiple internal conferences, Chairman Hu Jintao has reportedly mentioned the danger of the Party's end. What do you think the CCP's biggest crisis is?
LT: When Hu mentions the danger of the Party's end, he mainly brings up two points. One is the failing relationship between the Party and the people. The other issue is that the local CCP authorities no longer obey the central CCP authorities. The Party is descending into chaos—disintegrating from within. This presents a huge headache for President Hu, but he will do his best to gloss over these internal problems.
ET: The CCP officials have twice come out to deny the validity of the number of people having quit the CCP. Is this a passive and helpless response? What results can it bring?
LT: It has reached a point where it has to respond somehow. The CCP doesn't dare to publicly admit the withdrawals from the CCP. If they admitted it, it would trigger even more resignations. However, there are many party members spreading the information and more and more people are withdrawing, so the CCP must provide some form of explanation. One way or another they cannot remain silent.
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