HAVANA—Fidel Castro's absence from his belated 80th birthday celebration has reinforced suspicions he is too gravely ill to return to power he ceded provisionally to brother Raul last summer.
The once-fiery revolutionary said in a message read on Tuesday night at a kickoff to the five-day event he could not attend because "according to the doctors, I was not yet ready for such a challenging engagement."
Castro concluded the message by saying, "It is with great sorrow that I bid you farewell for not being able to personally thank you and embrace every one of you," he said.
Left open was the question of whether he may show up on Saturday at a military parade in Havana's main square. He also missed Wednesday's start of a three-day colloquium entitled "Memory and Future: Cuba and Fidel."
Questions about his health and fitness to govern have dominated the run-up to the week's events, which many have said felt more like a farewell to the bearded comandante than a celebration.
Castro announced on July 31 he had surgery for intestinal bleeding and temporarily put Raul Castro in charge of the country he had run since seizing power in a 1959 revolution.
He has not been seen since except in a handful of photos and videos.
The last, shown on October 28, was meant to quell rumors that he died. The appearance of the gaunt, shuffling Castro trying to look robust only added to a growing sense he was too old and too gravely ill to ever govern again.
Post-Castro
Most analysts have basically written Castro off, saying even if he survives, he likely will be only a figurehead while his brother runs the government.
They said there were already signs that Raul Castro, who has been defense minister for 47 years, was firmly in charge and putting his stamp on the government.
Castro's no-show has only reinforced that view, said Frank Mora, professor of national security strategy at the National War College in Washington.
"One can only conclude that his condition is very serious," Mora told Reuters. "We have definitely entered a post-Fidel phase where early next year we are likely to see some acceleration of changes."
Julia Sweig, Latin American expert at the Council of Foreign Relations in Washington said in a Tuesday conference call that whether or not Castro appears is now "sort of beside the point."
"But certainly if he doesn't appear, the signal will be very strong not only that he is not well physically, but this really is a done deal in terms of the transfer of power," she said.
Cuban officials have not disclosed Castro's illness, but have said repeatedly he is getting better and will run the government again.
As his birthday celebration neared, they began to downplay expectations that he would attend.
At Wednesday's colloquium, one high-ranking Cuban official simply walked away when asked if Castro might still show up.
But Rafael Daussa, former Deputy Foreign Relations Minister and current Cuban ambassador to Bolivia, said Castro's absence so far does not mean that much.
"You have to interpret it that he's not going to be here at this moment, but that does not say he's not going to be at other activities," he told Reuters.
"The commander in chief is recovering satisfactorily and I am sure that we will have (him) for a while," he said.
Castro turned 80 on August 13, but postponed the celebration until December 2 to coincide with the 50th anniversary of the start of the revolution.
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