China’s Hu Packs a Growing Military Threat

When China’s communist leader Hu Jintao touches down in Ottawa next week to start his five-day (two-part) state visit in Canada, he’s sure to bring with him the hype of trade deals, throngs of protestors against his and his government’s human rights record, and, these days, a growing military shadow.

In the last year Hu has increased military spending by 12.6% (and perhaps much more in the “unofficial budget”). He has trimmed hundreds of thousands of military officers, many from non-combat positions, and has redirected funds to areas like weapons development and procurement. Long-time China analyst Willy Lam says these changes have made the Chinese military leaner and “more combat-ready.”

A press release from the Prime Minister’s Office says the two leaders will talk about “climate change, energy, science and technology, investment, trade, human rights and tourism.” There is no mention of security, though a spokesperson for the prime minister said he could not confirm what else would be discussed.

The rapid build-up of China’s military, during peace time and with no apparent nearby threats, is not the only factor causing concern for China’s neighbours. It is also the recent outrageous comments by senior officials in its military.

China’s Major-General Zhu Chenghu raised eyebrows at a July 14 media event organized by China’s foreign ministry when he said that if the U.S. came to the defence of Taiwan in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, China would use nuclear weapons to destroy 100 U.S. cities, even if it meant losing every Chinese city east of Xian. (Most of China’s largest cities—including Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou—lie east of Xian.)

While the U.S. House of Representatives unsuccessfully pressed China for Zhu’s resignation, Canada let the issue pass with relative quiet.

“We understand that these remarks were those of the individual and do not necessarily represent the views of the Chinese government,” Pamela Greenwell, Foreign Affairs Canada spokesperson, told The Epoch Times this week.

“Canada has stated clearly that we are opposed to unilateral actions by any party to change Taiwan’s status, this includes the use of force,” she added.

The Chinese government has tried to narrow its rift with the U.S. ahead of Hu’s upcoming visit there, which will be intermingled with his stops in Canada. A Chinese government spokesperson also said Zhu was merely speaking his own opinion.

Zhu, however, has not retracted the remarks. Nor has he been reprimanded.

And others doubt the words were merely a personal opinion.

Charles F. Hawkins, a senior defence analyst in Washington, D.C. and a frequent Asia visitor says he knows Zhu Chenghu and has dined with him.

According to Hawkins, Zhu, who is also the Dean of China’s National Defence University and oversees instruction for English-speaking military students, is well-aware of the impact his words would have in the West.

“He's a soft-spoken, logical man, and has an excellent command of English,” Hawkins wrote for the Lianhe Zaobao newspaper. “His words about using nuclear weapons against the US in a war over Taiwan were not a mistake.”

Meanwhile, support for Zhu’s nuclear threat against the U.S. is alive in Canada’s Chinese communities, where many who grew up under Chinese Communist Party (CCP) propaganda view the statements as proof of their homeland’s new strength.

The “New Horizon,” a tabloid-size periodical produced by the Chinese Professionals Association of Canada (CPAC) ran a story on page 3 of its August 5 edition praising Zhu’s speech.

“Zhu Chenghu’s theory of a nuclear war for the first time vividly describes how hundreds of cities east of Xian and in America could be destroyed,” the article said.

“This can be seen as the nuclear ideal and goal of the Chinese people since China first developed nuclear technology. The nuclear force is the power of a state, and the power of a state cannot lack a goal.”

CPAC claims membership of 20,000 Chinese professionals in Canada, ranging from accountants to zoologists. The organization was part of a recent welcome dinner for China’s new ambassador to Canada.

Neither the Prime Minister’s Office nor Foreign Affairs Canada were able to confirm the list of Chinese community organizations that will be represented at a function with Hu and Martin in Toronto next weekend.

A staff member at CPAC could not confirm CPAC’s participation, but said she was aware of the dinner.

Support for Zhu’s nuclear stance against the U.S. goes beyond some members of a Chinese organization in Canada. It is widespread both in China and overseas.

Peter Ross, writing for the China Elections and Governance website (Chinaelections.org), says his site gathered the most discussion on Zhu’s speech among Chinese Internet users.

“A surprising number of commentators defended Zhu’s comments,” Ross wrote. He says this reflects “great level of nationalism that will be injected into any discussion of political relations with foreign countries.”

Meanwhile, critics of Zhu’s speech were lambasted with web postings like:

“I simply can't understand how China has so many cowards, scaredy-cats, and spineless slaves. You should die in shame rather than be on your last legs.”

The sentiments among Chinese appear rooted in the extensive nationalist propaganda that the CCP has used to link the idea of the communist party with that of the nation.

A recent opinion article by Epoch Times columnist San Renxing The CCP’s Last-Ditch Gamble: Biological and Nuclear War suggests that as the CCP has met with increasing threats to its legitimacy in China, this sentiment has been channeled in the direction of fascism. This, he says, is part of the last-ditch plan the CCP has been preparing to prolong its life since the first challenge to its rule was presented in the democracy movement of the 1980’s.

San’s article analyzed similar recent speeches by another high-ranking Chinese military officer, Chi Haotian, who was China’s Minister of Defence and Vice-Chair of China’s Central Military Commission when the speeches attributed to him were posted on websites in Mainland China.

These speeches included comments like:

“We must prepare ourselves for two scenarios. If our biological weapons succeed in the surprise attack (on the United States), the Chinese people will be able to keep their loss at a minimum in the fight against the United States. If, however, the attack fails and triggers nuclear retaliation from the United States, China would perhaps suffer a catastrophe in which more than half its population would perish…The population, even if more than half dies, can be reproduced. But if the party falls, everything is gone, and forever gone!”

Though these speeches are unofficial, they have been posted on a number of prominent Chinese website for months. Chi has never refuted the authenticity of the speeches, nor has he been punished.

While a build-up of military capacity might not sound alarms in a democratic country, it has China watchers concerned.

“…the fact that the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] is only at the beck and call of the party’s dominant faction – and that there are no checks and balances within the Chinese system – has engendered fears among China’s neighbours that the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] leadership might for reasons including self-preservation deploy the ever-potent army in an irresponsible, even irrational manner,” Willy Lam wrote in a recent edition of China Brief, published by the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation.

With Hu Jintao visiting Canada, Prime Minister Martin will have in front of him the man directly responsible for China’s security apparatus, military, and foreign affairs. However, whether the issue of China’s burgeoning military prowess will be on the agenda is not known.