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Liberals Get New Lease on Life
Win of Labrador Seat Cools Threat of Non-Confidence Vote

Reuters
May 27, 2005


OTTAWA - After a brief shave with death, the minority Liberal government looks like it has a new lease on life likely to last at least into the autumn.

Its hold on power remains tenuous, but unless it makes a major misstep between now and Parliament's scheduled recess on June 23, it appears unlikely that the opposition will make another attempt to bring it down and force an election.

"Why do a non-confidence vote only to get your head kicked in?" asked Conservative MP Monte Solberg.

The Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois -- together with independent David Kilgour, who voted with them -- have 153 seats, just one shy of half of the House of Commons.

By one vote they lost an attempt last Thursday to topple the Liberals in order to try to fight a new election -- just a year after the last one -- on allegations of corruption and mismanagement of Canada's finances.

On Tuesday the Liberals got an extra cushion when they won an election in Labrador to fill a vacancy, though their support still rests on one man, independent Chuck Cadman, who supported them last week but has the power to topple the Liberals.

When the new Member of Parliament takes his seat, the Liberals and their allies will have 153 seats, plus the Liberal speaker, who upholds the government in the case of a tie.

That leaves Cadman, a pony-tailed populist with a conservative background, once again holding the balance of power. He said last week that his constituents did not want an election at this time.

Political strategists assume the constituents will not suddenly change their mind in the next month, and after June 23 Parliament does not sit until Sept. 19. It must be in session for a confidence motion to be debated and voted on.

The autumn is anybody's guess, but Prime Minister Paul Martin's team seems more focused on making sure they survive the nearer term.

Next week, the three opposition parties have "opposition days," when they can move any motion they choose. The first day is on May 31 and will be run by the Conservatives, who want more tax cuts and less government spending.

The Conservatives have a non-confidence motion ready to go, and their House leader, Jay Hill, said Tuesday it could be brought forward at any time, but no one expects them to do so unless someone switches sides to back the Conservatives.

"We're assuming that the Conservatives will not seek to force an election given last Thursday's result," Martin spokesman Scott Reid said.

The government can expect several battles in the House finance committee over its two pieces of budget legislation -- which were given approval in principle in Thursday's confidence votes. The Liberals are budgeting more social spending though they pledge to keep the federal books in the black.

The Conservatives and the Bloc control the committee, and will try to force through some changes, such as taking out provisions which would allow Canada to buy emission credits abroad to meet Kyoto commitments on curbing climate change. They can also delay the legislation if they want to do so.

But committees themselves cannot bring down the government, and procedural experts say the Liberals can also get the House to force the committee to send the legislation back so the House can give its final approval.

Assuming his government does not fall this year, Martin has pledged to call an election for early in 2006, once a final report is submitted by the Gomery inquiry into allegations of corruption and kickbacks to the Liberal Party.


Copyright 2004 - The Epoch Times