BELGRADE - The threat of languishing in a Balkan "black hole" while neighbors join mainstream Europe has cracked the defiance of ex-Yugoslav states which had hoped they could stonewall the Hague war crimes tribunal.

Suspects long hidden behind a wall of official sympathy are surrendering. Serbia is racing Croatia to cooperate with The Hague. Bosnians and Kosovars have captured the moral high ground by handing themselves over without long delays.

The tribunal this week issued its last indictment, naming two former officials from Macedonia, hitherto untarnished by charges of atrocities. The two are already in custody but have not yet been sent for trial.

Seven Serbs and Bosnian Serbs have decided to surrender to The Hague since January, more than at any other time since the Bosnian war ended in 1995 and the Kosovo conflict in 1999.

The whereabouts of at least two top Serbian generals indicted for Kosovo crimes are known. On Tuesday there were hints that they would be arrested if they refused to come in voluntarily.

The court- the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia- has tried over 100 suspects and has 50 more waiting in Scheveningen prison for their day in the dock.

But at least 16 suspects are still at large, including top Bosnian Serb fugitives Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic and Croatia's General Ante Gotovina.

They "still skulk and hide", in the words of a British minister this month who praised Kosovo Albanian Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj, a former guerrilla fighter, for his prompt surrender on learning he had been indicted.

Bosnian Muslim wartime commander Rasim Delic also obeyed a summons by the U.N. court a week earlier, though with less political fanfare.

Supporters of both accused the tribunal of an artificial even-handedness that overlooked the fact that their side was heavily outgunned by Serbian forces in Bosnia and Kosovo.

All Stick

It was the blunt language of the European Union and the United States that jolted governments in ex-Yugoslavia that were doing less than their utmost to hand over suspects.

Months ago Washington and Brussels began telling Serbia, Bosnia and Croatia they could forget EU and NATO membership unless they surrendered fugitives, senior diplomatic sources said.

They followed up with a pointed reminder that EU and NATO certification is a lucrative "seal of approval" and its removal sends negative signals to foreign investors.

"They have given up on the carrot, it's only the stick now and it helps," Igor Gajic, editor-in-chief of the Bosnian Serb weekly newspaper Reporter, said as the language grew tougher.

"They used to say you won't get aid and similar things but there's none of that any more. These three countries now only get beaten up," he said. "Maybe it works because of the tradition of the Balkans -- the stick is the only thing people here understand."

In a one-two diplomatic punch in January, the United States told Serbia it was cutting aid and repatriating advisers. At the same time the EU cancelled a visit to Belgrade by foreign affairs chief Javier Solana.

One week later, as an EU expert team made its last visit before completing a report due on March 27 on Serbia's suitability for future membership of the EU, General Vladimir Lazarevic volunteered to face Kosovo war crimes charges.

The EU then issued a stark warning to Croatia that EU entry talks would not start as scheduled on March 17 unless fugitive general Ante Gotovina was arrested and handed over to The Hague.

In Bosnia, international peace overseer Paddy Ashdown warned it could be "three strikes and you're out" for the country to enter NATO's waiting room unless suspects were arrested.

The message was clear, but Belgrade and Zagreb are still wondering if they can get away with less than full compliance.

There were signs this week that Belgrade may have scored enough surrender "persuasions" to win a positive EU report on its membership bid. But Croatia's more advanced EU bid seemed certain to stall over Gotovina.

In the coming months, both governments will try to assess whether it is essential to arrest Mladic, Karadzic and Gotovina to win invitations to join the EU and NATO.

They may go on denying they are able to seize the fugitives, hoping the two blocs are not prepared to exclude the former Yugoslav states just for the sake of a runaway general or two.

While Western powers do not want to be seen walking out on a pledge to see justice done for the 1990s Balkan slaughter, diplomats say there are those in national capitals who would like to move on without insisting on prosecuting every suspect.

But Theodor Meron, the president of The Hague tribunal, vowed this week that the big fish will not get away.