As Prime Minister, Livni will be facing many serious challenges. No one knows how the current global economic crisis will impact Israel, but ricochets of the so-called "Economic Tsunami" are already taking their toll in the country.
Peace talks with Syria and the Palestinian Authorities are also in critical condition. If the talks don't progress they might regress.
The Iranian threat is also something Livni has to consider. All these factors are already being addressed in the negotiations for forming a coalition. Will Livni be able to create a strong and stable government that will stand in the face of the many challenges Israel is facing? Will Livni be able to achieve this while preserving her own principles?
Does the Global Financial Crisis Justify a Budget Increase?
One of the main difficulties Livni faces is the issue of increasing the government budget. In the face of an escalating global financial crisis, will an increase of the government budget mean an opportunity of growth for Israel's economy, or will it merely be a reckless and irresponsible maneuver to desperately form a coalition? The main question is where the money will go, and whether it will bring prosperity. If it doesn't, then an increase in the budget will increase the deficit, which wouldn’t necessarily be a responsible move in such uncertain times.
The Labor Party, which is striving to strengthen its social-democratic image, is demanding an increase in the national budget for 2009, as was decided by Olmert's government. Minister of Agriculture Shalom Simhon says this increase is indispensable for encouraging market growth. The leftist Meretz Party, too, is demanding a budget increase.
But voices in Kadima oppose an increase. Minister of Finance Roni Bar-on and Minister of Interior Meir Shitrit say that in times of such a global financial crisis it would be dangerous and irresponsible to increase the budget. Livni has not yet expressed a strong objection to open the already decided 2009 budget for further discussion.
Team Leadership?
Defense Ministrer Ehud Barak is using the importance of the following years for increasing Israeli security to increase his power in Livni's future government; Livni will need his professional experience. Barak says he wants to be "deeply and equally involved in leading the political process."
As was recently publicized, Barak wants to be involved in the government's every cardinal decision, including leading negotiations with the Syrians and the Palestinians and planning the Cabinet's agenda. He even demands the right to veto certain issues. Even if Livni doesn't totally agree to his demands, it doesn't seem the negotiations will fail because of this demand.
Combating ‘Friedmanism’
Minister of Justice Daniel Friedman's recent initiatives outraged the Labor and Meretz parties. They seek to use the coalition-forming negotiations to sabotage these initiatives. Many see his initiatives, such as changing the method of appointing judges and changing the Supreme Court's authority to discuss passing laws in the Knesset, as a blow to the Supreme Court's prestige.
Meretz says they will join the negotiations only if Friedman is dismissed. Barak, on the other hand, is not posing such an ultimatum but he, too, wants to weaken Friedman and block his initiatives. Livni, on her part, did not agree to dismiss Friedman as a condition for joining the coalition.
Social Justice or a Comfortable Escape?
The question of increasing benefit for multiple children seems to be the only disagreement in the negotiations between Livni and the Shas party, a religious party primarily representing Sepharadic Jews of lower socioeconomic classes. At least that's what it seems like on the surface. But under the surface it is questionable whether Shas really believes that Livni will succumb to their demands. Possibly the head of Shas, Eli Yishai is using these demands as a comfortable escape from joining the coalition, and as a means to portray Shas as a fighter for social justice, thus, enabling to precede the elections.
Such an escape will guarantee Yishai four more years as the party's leader, because party elections will take place before his opponent Arye Deri, who is barred from politics for three years after having been convicted of accepting bribes, will be able to return to politics and compete for the party's leadership. Morever, Yishai hasn't much to loose; he is guaranteed a place in a coalition of a Netanyahu-led government (Binyamin Netanyahu leads the opposition Likud party), and will get increased multi-child benefits from Likud.
It seems that as Livni progresses in talks with the Labor Party, Shas, too, will want to stay in the picture and will moderate its conditions for joining the coalition.
Another thorny issue is whether the question of dividing Jerusalem will be put on the table in the coalition-forming negotiations. If the issue arises, it might pose a serious barrier. If it doesn't come up, will Livni succeed in maintaining a stable government when the issue comes up later during the political process?
And beyond these controversies, there are still essential questions: Who is afraid of the elections? Who is prepared to take a risk in them? Those who are afraid of the elections might make great compromises. Is Barak ready for elections? And what are Livni's chances to win the elections if they are held three months from now (in case Livni gives up or fails to form a coalition)?
Rising Beyond Current Political Needs
Speaking at the opening session of the Foreign Ministries' Committee on Policy and Strategy on October 5, Livni expressed the desire to create a responsible government, one that rises beyond immediate political needs of parties during coalition-forming negotiations.
She said that a responsible economic policy cannot be subject to a political situation or processes in the coalition. Now, it remains to be seen how Livni will stick to her principles, and whether she will succeed in forming a coalition with those principles.
Original article in Hebrew: http://www.epochtimes.co.il/news/content/view/9831/85/
