ISLAMABAD—Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto, was poised on Saturday to win an election to become president.
Investors hope the election by members of the two-chamber parliament and four provincial assemblies will bring some stability after months of political turmoil that helped drag stocks and the rupee sharply lower.
Whoever wins will have to contend with a host of problems that have raised fears for the prospects of the nuclear-armed U.S. ally, including surging militant violence and an economy in crisis.
"Investors are hoping for political uncertainty to decrease with the presidential election," Sajid Bhanji, a dealer at brokers Arif Habib Ltd, said on Friday.
Zardari, known as a polo-playing playboy in his younger days, was thrust to the centre of politics by his wife's assassination on Dec. 27.
A February parliamentary election win by their Pakistan People's Party (PPP) took him to the centre of power.
His decision in August to begin impeachment proceedings against former president Pervez Musharraf led to the latter's resignation, and cleared the way for Zardari to win the top job.
His two rivals for president are Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui, a former judge, nominated by ex-prime minister Nawaz Sharif's party, and Mushahid Hussain Sayed, a senior official of the party that backed Musharraf and ruled under him.
Legislators will begin voting at 10 a.m. (0400 GMT) and the result is expected after several hours.
The PPP has the most electoral college votes and despite some doubts about Zardari's suitability, party members will stick by him, making victory virtually a foregone conclusion, analysts say.
Jail, doubts
Zardari, 53, spent 11 years in jail on corruption and other charges stemming from his time in government when his wife was prime minister in the 1990s. He was never convicted and said the charges were politically motivated.
But in an indication of the doubts Zardari faces, a poll by Gallup Pakistan found only 26 percent of about 2,000 people questioned thought he should be president, while 44 percent didn't want any of the three candidates.
Political uncertainty, exacerbated by a split in the PPP-led coalition last month, together with security and economic worries have sapped investor confidence and dragged Pakistani stocks down 34 percent this year.
The main index rose 1 percent on Friday, helped by optimism the vote will bring some clarity. The rupee has lost 20 percent to the dollar this year but firmed to 76.40/50.
Dwindling foreign reserves, a widening current account deficit and sliding rupee could result in a ratings downgrade as doubts mount over its ability to meet external debt obligations.
But it will probably avoid sovereign debt default as its stability is such an important geopolitical factor institutions such as the International Monetary Fund will eventually help it meet obligations, analysts say.
Zardari is close to the United States and has repeatedly stressed Pakistan's commitment to the campaign against militancy.
