While the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics was underway, fighting between Russia and Georgia erupted. Russian troops invaded Georgia, occupied Georgia's strategically important central city Gori and thus divided the Republic of Georgia in half.
Although there is a cease-fire in place, the battle is not yet over. With its troops deep into Georgia, a sovereign country, Russia is demanding the removal of Georgia's democratically elected president. With the support of the Georgian people, Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili announced that his nation will withdraw from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which is an alliance of former Soviet republics. He also called upon other CIS member countries, which were similarly threatened by Russia, to follow Georgia and leave the CIS.
European countries have joined a diplomatic mediation, and it appears that this conflict could drag on into a long drawn-out war.
Why? Let’s start by analysing the intentions of both combatants.
Before 1918, both Russia and Georgia were part of tsarist Imperial Russia, thereafter The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), or Soviet Union. The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to a declaration of independence of each of its 15 Republics, with Russia being the previous central state and also the largest among them. Russia took a leading role in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which was formed on December 21, 1991. Because of Russia's former KGB (Committee for State Security in the Soviet Union) and economic system, the surviving forces of the Communist Party in most the former Soviet republics quickly seized power. One example was the former Foreign Affairs Minister of the USSR, Eduard Shevardnadze, who became Georgia's president in 1995 and built a pro-Russian dictatorial government.
Among peoples in the former Soviet Republics, an antagonistic sentiment due to decades of suppression by Soviet communism mostly evolved into ethnic conflicts. Georgians, of course, were not happy with the pro-Russian dictatorship. After more than a decade of struggle, through the "rose revolution" which was partially peaceful and partially violent, the pro-Russian government was deposed and a new, democratic, pro-Western government was established. Naturally, Russia considers Georgia a thorn in its side and started to foster separatists among Georgia's minority groups, in an effort to split Georgia and overthrow Georgia's democratic government, replacing it with a new pro-Russian regime.
From Russia's point of view, a democratic, pro-West Georgia meant a NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) sword at its back, and the sooner the removal of such a force, the better. From Georgia's view, the separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, its two autonomous republics, are sharp swords on its sides from Russia. Little wiggle-room is left for either Russia or Georgia.
In this is the case not only Georgia, but also several other CIS member and European nations, where newly established democratic governments are facing Russia's threat. These countries have common interests and share the same fate: as the Chinese say, “With bared lips, the teeth feel cold.” That is why when Russia invaded the Republic of Georgia, it was Poland, the Ukraine and the Baltic states that reacted the strongest and the quickest. That is also why Russia, although planning this long ago, waited and did not strike earlier.
Unfortunately, Georgia's young president chose the wrong time and wrongly anticipated the reactions from NATO and Russia. Prematurely, Georgia used force to attempt to reassert control over South Ossetia, which gave a pretext for Russia to provoke a full scale invasion, and led to a lost war. The speed and strength of Russia's response were disproportionate, far beyond what Georgia could have anticipated.
On the other hand, immediately after the Russian invasion, the sluggish and cold response from the West media, and politicians, who immersed themselves in the Beijing Olympics fever, were also beyond the anticipation of the Georgian president. These are the significant factors leading to Georgia's major loss and mistakes.
When mediators from the European Union arrived, the Russian troops were already close to Georgia's capital. The political bargaining chips were no longer in Georgia's hands. If the West fails to unite firmly against the Russian invasion, Georgia will be dismembered, weakened, and no longer be the frontier of democratic nations.
However, the situation for Russia is not very favourable either. If the Russians had achieved what Hitler did with his blitzkrieg ("lightning war") in Poland in 1939, quickly destroying the Georgia government before the world could react. the Western nations might have taken an appeasement policy again and given up Georgia. But Russia did not accomplish that. The Russian invasion immediately drew strong resistance from East European countries, which have a collective strength to match against Russia. The presidents of Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia stood with Georgian President Saakashvili in the war-torn Georgia capital, Tbilisi, showing their strong solidarity and determination to survive or die together in a fight against a Russian invasion. Ukraine even threatened to block the return of Russia's Black Sea Fleet to Sevastopol. Under such circumstances, Russian Prime Minister Putin could not declare war against all these countries.
Without going to war, an anti-Russia "New Europe" has now formed. Fictitious friendships will no longer exist. East European countries will not solely depend on support from the West that sometimes lacks enough credibility, but will now rely on their own united force against Russia's aggressive ambitions. This is a passive situation for Russia and not within Putin’s initial expectations. It is no longer important whether NATO expands eastward or not. The important thing is that East European countries, after being oppressed by Russia for almost a century, will now form an anti-Russia alliance, as closely related as lips and teeth. With the assistance and support from the West, Russia's hegemony will truly end.
The negotiations may drag on and on and the Georgian people will have hardships ahead of them. However, the current suffering may signal the beginning of a new era for Georgia to totally rid itself of the oppression of the bully next door.
We wish the people of Georgia and other Eastern European nations, success through perseverance and resistance against the invaders to win their true independence and true freedom. We also wish that the people of Russia, who are under the control of Putin and the remaining KGB forces, will start their march toward democracy. Russia needs to rid its persuasion of Grand-Russian chauvinism and make peace with its neighbouring countries and citizens. This may be such an opportunity right now.
Written on August 12, 2008
Original Article in Chinese broadcasted by Radio Free Asia
