Certainly, Russia can solve a problem using military force, although it will be one hundred times more difficult now than it was in the Chechen Republic. But the real battle field of this conflict is not military but diplomatic, political, and even ideological.
If Russia will be involved in a war in Georgia as it was in Afghanistan, and earlier in Czechoslovakia, and Hungary, and even earlier in Finland, it will give a clear signal to the whole world: Russia does not belong to the democratic world and its membership in the “G-8” will become a kind of a joke. And its membership in WTO and all other elite clubs of modern mankind will become impossible too.
Russia can put itself in danger of being treated like the Soviet Union was before, with international isolation the price of its behavior. It is hard even to imagine what will happen if the West should freeze the dollar accounts of Russian oligarchs. Russia could win South Ossetia (with a population of 45 thousand) and Abkhazia (with a population of 200 thousand), but it will lose the world.
This war is a challenge for the U.S. and all Western democracies as well. If the West will allow the tearing of Georgia to pieces, it will forever lose face. It is no secret that the Georgian military are trained and armed by NATO countries (and Israel). and the Russian military invasion into this country is a challenge, which the West has not confronted since the end of the Cold War.
This war is a test as well for the whole world community. If the major principle of the world system—state immunity—could be trampled on so easily, it means that we live not in a civilized world but in a jungle. And this means that there is a need not only for surrounding Russia with a shield of all possible antimissile defense systems, but also to return to a strategy of “restraining” Moscow everywhere.
The behavior of Russia towards the Georgian separatist regions—Abkhazia and South Ossetia—was that of a ruffian until now, but today Russian’s behavior has the potential to become a real war crime. If only a phantom of an international tribunal will appear at the Hague horizon, it will turn the whole democratic world away from Russia, as well as the greater part of the undemocratic countries that deal with oil.
On the other hand, if the United States, Europe and the NATO will allow this atavistic act of Kremlin imperialism, they will lose the trust of those who treasure such concepts as freedom, democracy, and human rights and dignity.
These events are also a hard test for the Georgian authorities as well. Georgia has been restoring a constitutional order and should offer separatists a democratic alternative. The main thing is to solve problems at the negotiation table, and not be tempted by American weapons.
Conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia have been developing before my eyes. There is clearly separatism in these regions, with criminal elements hidden behind the Russian soldiers who have protected them.
However, the Georgian nationalists led by Zviad Gamsakhurdia have contributed to this separatism. I was a direct witness of how Zviad has inflated this situation. It was exactly on this ground that our friendship and cooperation has broken off. At that time I was a part of a delegation to the West as a representative of the Georgian Helsinki group led by Zviad.
Georgia will hardly benefit from the hatred of tens of thousand of citizens. Therefore, the development of a powerful program aimed at the liquidation of mutual hatred and enmity is needed—not just changes in the higher leadership.
Now, it is crucial for all Georgian politicians, regardless of their orientation, to become unified. They all need to unite with the President and the Army to prevent a civil war. For centuries there has not been a civil war in Georgia.
Certainly, military invasion is not acceptable from any perspective. There is no justification for the death of even one civilian.
However, it is obvious that Russia cannot play the role of a peacemaker in these conflicts. Russia has failed this task. It is as good a “peacemaker” as a wolf is at pretending to be a lamb.
It is obvious that Russia contributed to provoking the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia (it shares laurels here with Zviad’s supporters). Russia never hid its position which could hardly be regarded as an objective one. And today Russia has thrown off the last fig leaf... and what do we witness?
We witness the market in Gori destroyed by bombing. I see the bombed out railway station (I had spent my childhood nearby), a hotel in Senaki in ruins, the bombardment of the small town Khoni, and of Poti’s seaport. Now, as I was writing these lines, the Russian artillery had been wiping out the city of Gori. And full scale military operations—overland, aviation, tanks, and so on, are ready.
Here is one more important aspect. All of the Caucasus today is a “powder keg” and if the Georgian fire burns, the Northern Caucasus will be the first to which the fire will spread.
This could bring to an end the short “golden (oil) age” of a new Russia. It will become no different than the USSR was and no circumstances will force a free world to be friends of the reactionary. The way of Albanian Enver Hoxha, a way of Northern Korean Kim Jong-il and a way of Cuban Fidel Castro are threatening today to a great power with a strange understanding of its greatness.
What should be done? Withdrawal of all Russian armies—“peace-keepers”, “militias” and all others—from the foreign state, a member of the United Nations. Peacemakers of the United Nations should enter the disputed regions. Political, not military, settlement of the problems is needed. This is the only and a pretty simple recipe, which could prevent tomorrow’s thundering alarm bell. And those separatists, who have Russian passports, should be given a right to freely return to their adopted country, the Russian Federation.
Tengiz Gudava has a Ph.D. in biophysics. He is a journalist, writer, former dissident, and political prisoner. In 1987, he was released from Perm political camp in the Soviet Union under the condition of leaving the country. He now lives with his family in the U.S. and works as a consultant in Washington, D.C.
